The inauguration of Vladimir Putin on Tuesday will look and feel like Groundhog Day, as the 71-year-old strongman walks down the red carpet of the Grand Kremlin Palace to pomp and applause for a fifth crowning as president.
It is what comes next that is less certain.
Tradition and Russian law dictate that the swearing in of a new president triggers a government reshuffle, which could shed rare light on Putin’s state of mind ahead of another six-year term.
With Russia’s war on Ukraine in its third year, Putin is showing no signs of wanting to deviate from his current path of destruction against Kyiv, repression at home and antagonism towards the West.
“The paramount goal for Putin is to produce more arms, keep the economy stable, protect it from sanctions and target inflation,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, the founder of the R. Politik political analysis firm.
“We shouldn’t expect a review of that policy.”
But the extent to which Putin overhauls the line-up of those tasked with implementing that agenda will offer an insight into how willing he is to let go of old habits in order to secure his regime’s future.
Traditionally, Putin has straddled two models of governance, according to Nikolai Petrov, a consulting fellow at Chatham House.
On the one hand, he has leant on an old guard of trusted friends and acquaintances, such as Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, the latter of whom has held his post for two decades.
On the other, he has relied on loyal technocrats such as Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and Russia’s Central Bank Chief Elvira Nabiullina to keep the country’s economy afloat.
But that way of doing things appears increasingly untenable, with some of Putin’s most trusted henchmen nearing or in their seventies.
That includes Lavrov, 74, and Shoigu, 68, as well as the country’s top security hawks Alexander Bortnikov, 72, Sergei Naryshkin, 69 and Alexander Bastrykin, 70.
“It’s time for Putin’s generation to leave the stage, but their replacements are not ready,” said Petrov. “The system is facing a serious problem, and we’ll see to what extent it is able to solve it or whether it’ll just stall for time.”
“If Putin wants to maintain his system, he needs to change it,” political analyst Abbas Gallyamov agreed.
He pointed to the recent shock arrest of Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov for bribe-taking, widely seen as an attack on Shoigu, as a possible signal Putin is prepared to “shake at the foundation of the system.”
That would be a big departure from the old way of doing things — which has allowed Shoigu to keep his post as top defense chief despite slow progress in Ukraine and a scandalous attempted mutiny by Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin.
In past years, the Kremlin has generally opted for candidates who were deemed easy to control rather than necessarily being qualified for the job at hand, drawing new recruits among Putin’s former bodyguards or the younger relatives of those in Putin’s inner circle.
In that context, Dmitry Patrushev, the current agriculture minister and the son of Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev, 72, has been touted as someone who could be promoted in Putin’s upcoming reshuffle.
That would mean a win for Russia’s hawkish law enforcement bloc, says Gallyamov.
But Chatham House’s Petrov added that such appointments are also a way for Putin to keep their parents “on a leash.”
Political analyst Stanovaya said surprises could also come in the form of as-yet-unknown “young hawks” with a military background in Ukraine being appointed to political posts.
“Putin has stated publicly he considers them the real elite who must with time replace the current elite,” she said.
Any changes Putin would make, she predicted, would likely be limited and swift, in order “to secure that senior officials will continue working seamlessly, without interruptions.”
The March election — which saw Putin claim a record 87 percent of Russians’ support — has widely been condemned as illegitimate in the West, with the European Parliament in April passing a resolution denouncing the vote as a “sham.”
Several countries have publicly announced they will not be sending envoys to Putin’s inauguration, including Germany, the Baltic countries, the Czech Republic and Armenia.
Notably, however, Reuters reported Monday that France would be sending its ambassador, according to a French diplomatic source.
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