Senate Republicans are gearing up to tackle President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” – a sweeping and complicated piece of legislation with real-world implications for everyone from waitresses to billionaires and touching on Medicaid, deportation resources, overtime taxes and more.
The bill is supposed to be the most significant legislative achievement of Trump’s second term so far − if it can get across the finish line. It makes good on several of the two-term Republican’s 2024 campaign promises, including tax breaks for service workers’ tips and overtime, and extends 2017 tax cuts from his first administration.
Though waiters and high-income earners stand to benefit, millions of Medicaid recipients and undocumented immigrants are among those expected to be hurt by the provisions, depending on the final bill.
Polling: Majority of Americans oppose Trump’s tax bill
The Trump administration and GOP leaders have said they want the bill on the president’s desk by Independence Day.
But that’s a long way from becoming reality. To make that July 4 deadline, the Senate would need to hammer out some significant intraparty sticking points and rally enough support to cross the 50-vote mark, then get any differences settled with the Republican-led House before another round of voting. All of that would need to happen within the next 10 days to meet the Republicans’ self-imposed deadline.
Senate charts tentative timeline
More: Deeper Medicaid cuts, limited tax breaks for tips: What’s in the Senate tax bill
Senate leadership must start the week ironing out a floor-ready version of the bill, a negotiation process that probably would involve soothing some holdouts and pressuring others to fall in line.
Republicans are expected to bring that final draft to the chamber for debate by midweek, possibly as early as June 25. Senators are returning to Capitol Hill at the start of the week and will stay in Washington until a bill is passed, said Majority Leader John Thune, R-South Dakota.
“I am confident we will get this bill across the finish line,” Thune wrote in a Fox News opinion piece June 23. “By placing this historic bill on the president’s desk by the Fourth of July, Republicans will be ensuring that future generations of Americans can live in safety and prosperity.”
The buck doesn’t stop with Thune, though. Whatever Senate Republicans are able to get through ultimately must be reconciled with the House and then − if any changes are made − voted on again in both chambers. The original version passed the lower chamber by one vote in May.
Clash on Medicaid reforms
More: House Speaker Mike Johnson: People won’t lose Medicaid ‘unless they choose to’
Cuts to Medicaid remain a major sticking point.
The federal health insurance program was a prime target for fiscal conservatives’ concerns about how much the spending bill would add to the national deficit.
Meanwhile, a contingent of Senate Republicans, including Josh Hawley of Missouri and Jim Justice of West Virginia, have raised concerns about a provision that would limit the money states can raise to pay for their portion of Medicaid spending.
The original House version of the bill included that and other changes, such as increased eligibility checks and new work requirements. Combined, the changes would save at least $625 billion and cause 7.6 million Americans to lose health care coverage over the next 10 years, according to an estimate at the time by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.
Senate lawmakers have proposed even deeper cuts, irking some rural state senators and House leadership alike.
“The new Senate scheme defunding rural hospitals can’t pass the House,” Hawley wrote in a June 18 post to X. “Time to scrap it and get this thing finished. Don’t hold up the bill for stuff that can’t pass!”
The big bill is shrinking
Most bills need to get 60 votes in the Senate or the minority party can trigger a filibuster to scuttle the legislation. But Trump’s priority plan is sidestepping the filibuster by using special “reconciliation” rules.
That allows the bill to pass with only GOP support in a Senate with 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats, but under reconciliation every aspect of the bill must meet strict criteria that prohibit extraneous provisions that don’t directly affect the federal budget.
The Senate parliamentarian has been combing through the House-passed bill to determine what aspects violate the criteria, which would force Republicans to strip them from the bill or face a possible filibuster.
Over the weekend, the Senate parliamentarian determined that part of the bill shifting some food aid costs to states does not comply with the rules. The change to the Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program (SNAP), formerly known as food stamps, was supposed to help offset lost revenue from tax cuts.
The parliamentarian also ruled against provisions in the bill eliminating funding for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, restricting the ability of judges to block government policies, and other measures.
The changes aren’t just a blow to the GOP’s policy goals. They also influence the financial balancing act lawmakers are trying to achieve as they try to sell the bill to fiscal conservatives who are worried about increasing the national debt.
Worries about a ballooning deficit
The House-passed legislation would add at least $2.4 trillion over the next 10 years, which has led Republican senators to raise concerns about that price tag while pushing for larger cuts to Medicaid and clean energy tax credits.
Sen. Rick Scott, R-Florida, said he still wants deeper cuts to Medicaid; Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wisconsin, said he couldn’t vote for the package as-is.
“We’re a long ways from home on this one,” Johnson said. “Let’s be serious about making this a much better bill.”
Others are worried about a provision in the bill that would raise the debt ceiling by $5 trillion. The United States is otherwise expected to run out of room to borrow sometime in August.
Senate factions face off
Trump’s legislation has divided GOP senators. Its final version will depend on which factions are most successful in influencing the bill.
Deficit hawks pushing for deeper spending cuts include Johnson, Scott and Utah GOP Sen. Mike Lee. But senators such as Hawley, Justice, Maine’s Susan Collins and Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski have resisted slashing Medicaid more aggressively.
Some GOP senators also are worried about the House-passed bill rolling back renewable energy tax credits for solar, wind, geothermal and nuclear energy. They include Murkowski, North Carolina’s Thom Tillis and Utah’s John Curtis.
“There are many of us who recognize that what came out of the House was pretty aggressive in how it seeks to wind down or phase out many of the energy tax credit provisions,” Murkowski said. “I happen to think that we’ve got tax policies that are working to help advance our energy initiatives around the country, as diverse and as varied as they are. Wouldn’t we want to continue those investments?”
Contributing: Reuters
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Trump’s tax and spending bill is moving in the Senate
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