By Lisa Baertlein
NEW ORLEANS (Reuters) -U.S. truckers are moving record volumes of auto parts, appliances and sneakers after their customers stocked up ahead of President Donald Trump’s tariffs, but an industry slowdown looms as those new duties start choking economic activity.
The $906 billion U.S. trucking industry was clawing back from a nearly three-year freight recession before Trump took office on January 20. Now that Trump’s import duties are in force, the bounce-back that the industry hoped for is at risk.
Truckers this month are moving more volume than they did during the pandemic peak in 2021, fueled by tariff avoidance, Dean Croke, principal analyst at Roper Technologies’ DAT Freight and Analytics, told Reuters.
That volume is masking deteriorating demand from key sectors – particularly domestic manufacturing, which drives more than 60% of big rig ton miles, and ocean imports.
“Things have turned south in a hurry with this trade war that’s emerging,” Croke said of the outlook for U.S. trucking.
“None of the signals are good when it comes to truckload demand.”
As of Monday, the spot rate for a semi trailer of goods, known as a dry van, was $1.60 per mile excluding fuel, up slightly from $1.54 a year earlier, said Croke. He expects year-over-year volume to be flat again in 2025 with small, if any, rate increases.
“Talks of tariffs and the fluid trade policy spurred a more cautious tone among shippers that brought a pause to the momentum to the market,” Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings CEO Adam Miller said on the company’s earnings call on Wednesday.
And while Knight-Swift is winning rate increases in some new contracts, that trend is at risk if volumes and competing spot rates are weak, he said.
BUMPY ROAD AHEAD
The fortunes of U.S. truckers matter because they touch virtually every sector of the U.S. economy and are among the first to register changes in business activity.
The American Trucking Associations in January forecast 2025 industry volume growth of 1.6%. The ATA did not respond to requests for comment.
Meanwhile, the vital U.S. manufacturing sector contracted in March after growing for two straight months.
U.S. home building is at risk of a downturn, following unexpected weakness in single-family permits and starts through March.
Beyond that, U.S. firms that import from China have been pausing orders after Trump hit that country with tariffs of 145%. China retaliated with 125% tariffs on U.S. goods, including beef and other exports that could move by truck.
China accounted for nearly one-third of U.S. seaborne import volume in March and helped drive near-record U.S. ocean imports so far this year.
Forecasters and some port executives said they expect that trend to reverse, starting as early as May.
Likewise, transport stocks are suffering trade war-related pain, having been among the biggest winners following Trump’s re-election.
At the close of trading on Wednesday, the Dow Jones Transportation Average Index was down 15.4% year-to-date versus an 8.9% drop in the S&P 500.
Many U.S. trucking firms already are running slim to non-existent margins, said Shelley Simpson, CEO of J.B. Hunt, which counts retail giant Walmart as a customer. Intense competition means rate increases are failing to keep up with escalating operating costs.
“I’ve never seen a (freight) recession last three years,” Simpson said on the company’s earnings call last week.
“Everyone’s holding on.”
(Reporting by Lisa Baertlein in Los Angeles. Editing by Mark Potter)
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