President Donald Trump this week disputed criticism over high egg prices in an exclusive interview with ABC News, faulting his predecessor for the price hike and claiming what he described as a recent decline in egg prices.
“You remember the big thing with eggs? They hit me the first week, ‘Eggs, eggs, eggs,’ like it was my fault. I said, ‘I didn’t cause this problem. This problem was caused by [Joe] Biden,’” Trump told ABC News’ Terry Moran.
“Egg prices are down,” Trump later added.
The remarks echoed claims made repeatedly by Trump since he took office, but his assessment of egg prices is potentially misleading, some food economists told ABC News.
Retail egg prices, or the prices paid by shoppers, have climbed over the early months of Trump’s term, meaning household budgets have been slammed by worsening egg costs, the economists said.
By contrast, wholesale egg prices — the amount grocers pay to suppliers — have dropped significantly since Trump took office, though Trump appeared to overstate the amount of decline during the ABC News interview.
It remains unclear when and to what extent that decline in wholesale egg prices will translate into relief for consumers, economists added.
“Egg prices have been increasing at the retail level and that’s really important when assessing the claim President Trump made yesterday,” said David Ortega, a food economist at Michigan State University.
Parke Wilde, a food economist at Tufts University, added: “I encourage people who are reading the news about food prices to focus on consumer prices, not wholesale prices, because that’s what real consumers care about.”
Economists also largely rejected the attribution of blame for egg prices to any president, whether former President Joe Biden or Trump, saying a president exerts minimal influence over day-to-day egg costs.
“The president has little or no control over egg prices,” Ortega said. “Any changes, whether egg prices go up or down, have almost nothing to do with what the president or any other policymaker is doing.”
Despite Trump’s claim that eggs prices are falling, the price paid by shoppers has increased significantly since he took office, food economists said.
The average retail price of a dozen eggs climbed from $4.95 in January to $6.22 in March, the most recent month for which data is available. That change in price amounted to a 25% spike, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows.
In recent years, bird flu — also known as avian flu — has decimated the egg supply while demand has persisted, lifting prices higher.
“Even as egg prices have exploded over the last year or two, we’ve actually seen really strong demand for eggs,” Trey Malone, a food economist at Purdue University, told ABC News.
“The reality is it’s really hard to substitute away from eggs. I can’t make cookies without eggs if I want to make grandma’s recipe.”
In recent months, however, the rise in retail egg prices has coincided with a drop in wholesale prices. That decline largely owes to an easing of the avian flu outbreak, food economists told ABC News.
When Trump refers to a drop in egg prices, he may be referring to the decline in wholesale prices. In a memo on Tuesday listing economic accomplishments, the White House highlighted the drop in wholesale egg prices while acknowledging that retail prices may still be elevated for some consumers.
“Most consumers have seen relief in prices on the shelf, but all consumers should see it within the next month or two,” the White House said.
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Speaking with ABC News on Tuesday, Trump said: “Eggs are down 87% since I got involved.”
Trump has provided different figures for the size of the drop in egg prices. On April 17, he said prices had fallen 92%, while on April 4 he said egg prices had dropped 87%.
Each of those figures overstates the drop in wholesale egg prices, according to data from the USDA.
On Jan. 21, the day after Trump took office, the average wholesale price of a dozen eggs stood at $6.55; as of April 30, that price had dropped to $3.25, a Trading Economics analysis of USDA data shows. That change in price amounts to a roughly 50% decline.
“It’s not accurate to say egg prices have decreased by 87%,” Ortega said. “Wholesale egg prices are down but they’re not down by that much.”
The decline in wholesale egg prices may result in a drop in the prices paid by consumers, but the timing and extent of the relief remain unclear, food economists said.
The lag owes in part to the nature of contracts between businesses and egg suppliers, which often lock in prices for weeks, experts said. Grocers may also be reluctant to slash egg prices, some experts added, since customers have largely kept up egg purchases at higher prices.
“For as much people talk about increasing egg prices, they’re still buying eggs,” Malone said.
ABC News’ Emily Chang contributed to this report.
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