The tropics are awakening from their winter slumber.
In the eastern Pacific Ocean near Central America, meteorologists say the atmosphere is becoming more favorable for tropical development.
“An area of low pressure is expected to form early next week several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico,” the National Hurricane Center said in a tropical weather outlook on May 23.
“Conditions appear favorable for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form around the middle of next week,” the hurricane center said.
The center gives the system a 70% chance of development.
Hello, Alvin?
“Signs continue to point toward some slow tropical development off the Pacific coast of Central America and south of the southwestern coast of Mexico prior to the end of the month,” AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said.
“At this time, we believe a tropical feature may organize sometime from May 26 to May 30, especially the latter part of that period,” he said.
If it becomes a named system, it would be called Alvin – the first named tropical cyclone anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere this year.
As a refresher, a tropical depression becomes a named storm when its sustained wind speed reaches 39 mph.
An early start to the season
The average date for the first tropical storm of the eastern Pacific season is June 10, according to the National Hurricane Center.
“If a storm forms soon, it would be well ahead of the historical pace – and much earlier than last year’s first storm. In 2024, Aletta didn’t form until July 4, marking the latest start to an eastern Pacific hurricane season in the satellite era,” said AccuWeather meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.
More: The Atlantic is primed to start spewing hurricanes, NOAA forecast says
Below-average season expected
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, in a seasonal hurricane forecast released May 22, said that a below-average eastern Pacific hurricane season is most likely. An average season sees 15 named storms.
Eastern Pacific storms and hurricanes primarily stay out to sea and seldom affect the U.S. mainland, although some storms do hit the west coast of Mexico and remnant moisture from the storms can affect the U.S. Southwest.
Southwest impacts possible this year
The eastern Pacific hurricane season could still bring notable indirect impacts to the southwestern United States, AccuWeather said.
Folks in California might remember the impact from Hilary in 2023: “While a repeat of the tactics of Hurricane Hilary from August 2023 is not anticipated, a heavy amount of tropical moisture could be pumped into the Southwest in addition to what is likely to be an active (drenching) North American monsoon season for New Mexico and Arizona,” AccuWeather meteorologist Paul Pastelok said.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Hurricane forecasters say Tropical Storm Alvin may form in Pacific
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