What comes next?
Iran − and its hard-line supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – are almost certainly going to strike back in response to historic U.S. military strikes on three of its suspected nuclear facilities.
But if history is any guide, that response could happen at any time − and anywhere, and in any form, former U.S. intelligence officials and diplomatic experts say.
“Missiles, militias and acts of hostage-taking – that’s their go-to” range of options, the Biden administration coordinator for the Middle East, Brett McGurk, said in an interview June 21 with CNN. “I suspect Iran will have to do something.”
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But like others wondering about Iran’s intentions, McGurk said he has no idea what the Islamic regime’s next step will be.
That’s especially the case given President Donald Trump’s warning that any retaliatory act will be met with even greater force than what he says obliterated the uranium enrichment sites at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan.
“If peace does not come quickly, we will go after those other targets with precision, speed and skill,” Trump said in an address to the nation late June 21. “Most of them can be taken out in a matter of minutes.”
In an early morning briefing June 22, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said he hoped the scope of the surprise attack would persuade Tehran’s mullahs not to retaliate. “We believe that will have a clear psychological impact on how they view the future,” Hegseth said, “and we certainly hope they take the path of negotiated peace.”
Former Trump National Security Adviser John Bolton told USA TODAY that Iran “may well retaliate, but this is the kind of decision that can fragment the regime at the top, and ultimately bring it down.”
“Right now, Iran has one military adversary which is pounding it and its terrorist proxies with great success,” Bolton said in reference to Israel, which also had attacked Tehran’s suspected nuclear sites. “Is Iran really eager to add the United States as a second military adversary? Some Iranian ayatollahs and military flag officers may not be suicidal.”
Former top U.S. counterterrorism official Javed Ali agreed that a strong Iranian counterpunch is “possible but very risky, and the situation is very different than in January 2020 when the U.S. and Iran last attacked each other” after the first Trump administration assassinated Iranian military leader Qasem Soleimani. On Jan. 8, 2020, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched ballistic missiles at Iraqi bases housing U.S. troops, wounding more than 100 service members.
Opening a new chapter in the 46-year U.S.-Iran battle
Karim Sadjadpour, a Carnegie Endowment for International Peace senior fellow and longtime Iran watcher, said it’s “unlikely the Iranians will see it the same way” as Trump and Hegseth
“This is more likely to open a new chapter of the 46-year-old US-Iran war than conclude it,” Sadjadpour, who regularly advises senior U.S., European and Asian officials on Iran, said in a series of posts on X.
More: Iran warns it ‘reserves all options’ after US airstrikes on nuclear sites: Recap
But he, too, said many of Iran’s retaliatory options are “the strategic equivalent of a suicide bombing” given the potential response by the United States and Israel.
A range of Iranian options
The Tehran regime, with its powerful military and numerous proxy fighting forces in the Middle East, could strike U.S. troops in the region, experts and former officials said. It also could attack U.S. embassies and civilian targets frequented by Americans, they said, and launch cyberattacks against crucial infrastructure in the United States.
Another option: attacking oil facilities in the Persian Gulf or mining the Strait of Hormuz to shut down international shipping lanes, with the help of the Houthi militias that Tehran trains and funds in Yemen.
Iran also could launch terrorist attacks using Hezbollah fighters that have been blowing up U.S. military and civilian targets in the region since the 1983 bombings of the U.S. Embassy and a Marine Corps barracks in Lebanon that killed 300 people.
And Iran could launch some of its vast arsenal of missiles against Israel, though that would risk having many of them shot down by Israel’s Iron Dome defense apparatus.
Tehran also has some of the world’s most accomplished cyberwarriors, and it could cause chaos and disruption by attacking U.S. critical infrastructure. That risk is both credible and growing, said Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery, a former executive director of the Cyberspace Solarium Commission, after a 700% increase in similar attacks on Israeli infrastructure.
“If you ask me, ‘Is it possible?’ Yes,” said Montgomery, a senior fellow at the McCrary Institute at Auburn University. “Is it likely? Yes.”
Iran’s supreme leader likely will dictate its response
Much, if not all, of Iran’s response will be dictated not by its civilian government but by Khamenei, the Iranian cleric who has served as the second supreme leader of Iran since 1989.
Khameini is considered one of the longest-serving dictators in the world, who rules the oil-rich Islamic republic with an iron fist. But he’s also a savvy politician who knows his regime “may not survive the blowback” that a response would trigger, Sadjadpour said
The U.S. intelligence community has, for years, made similar assessments.
In its most recent annual assessment, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence concluded Tehran would continue to use its loose consortium of like-minded terrorist and militant actors, known as the “Axis of Resistance,” against the U.S. and Israel.
Although Iran has seen some of its proxies destroyed or degraded, “these actors still represent a wide range of threats” that could be mobilized in a counterattack, the ODNI said.
But the ODNI also concluded that Khamenei “continues to desire to avoid embroiling Iran in an expanded, direct conflict with the United States and its allies.”
Though Khamenei is not considered reckless, he has also painted himself into a corner by saying publicly that Tehran would never cave in to U.S. pressure. On June 18, he warned the United States that it would suffer “irreparable damage” if it took military action against Iran amid its conflict with Israel.
As a result, Sadjadpour said, “his survival instincts and defiant instincts are in great tension now.”
Iran’s ability to respond is diminished − but by how much?
Iran’s response undoubtedly will be hampered by lethal attacks on its military and proxy forces by Washington and Israel in recent years, beginning with the first Trump administration’s targeted killing of Soleimani.
Soleimani’s death prompted “real and specific threats” and assassination plots against Trump and former Trump administration officials on U.S. soil, including Bolton.
More: Trump says US intel briefed him about how Iran wants to assassinate him to sow discord in US
Tehran’s regional power also has been eroded by the death of its strongest regional ally, Syrian strongman Bashar al-Assad. Israel has decimated its most powerful proxy, Hezbollah, by a series of military strikes and assassinations. And Trump, since returning to office, has launched numerous military strikes on Yemen’s Houthis.
For now, the United States will be watching and waiting to see if Khameini and Iran decide to launch some kind of “one-off” unilateral response, or a coordinated effort with – or through – one of those proxy groups – or a third, Hamas.
“We have to be ready for that,” McGurk said.
Like others, McGurk said it’s also possible that Iran will stand down and heed Trump’s warning not to retaliate or face a potential regime-ending response.
“I hope that’s where this goes,” McGurk said. “We’ve got to be prepared for the worst while hoping and working for the best. … These next few days will be quite something. These are unprecedented times.”
By 1 a.m. Washington time on June 22, Iran had already fired its first retaliatory missile, according to media reports citing the Israel Defense Forces.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Iran is likely to retaliate for U.S. strikes. But when, where and how?
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