By Arsheeya Bajwa
(Reuters) -Intel’s third-quarter results on Thursday will show whether a clutch of recent high-profile investments can shore up its strained finances as new CEO Lip-Bu Tan attempts to revive the ailing chipmaker.
Multi billion-dollar investments from Nvidia and Japan’s SoftBank as well as an unprecedented U.S. government stake during the September quarter provided bright spots in Intel’s long-running turnaround.
The investments have helped its shares nearly double in value this year and outpace gains in AI darling Nvidia, setting a high bar for the company expected to report a 1% drop in third-quarter sales to $13.14 billion, according to LSEG data. Shares of the company were down 4.5% on Wednesday.
Investors would be closely looking for progress on the company’s broader strategy, said Joe Tigay, portfolio manager at the Rational Equity Armor Fund, which holds Intel shares.
“Putting all (recent investments) together – What does Intel’s big picture look like? What does their cash look like?” Tigay said.
CASH BOOST, EARNINGS DILUTION
Nvidia said last month it would invest $5 billion in Intel, giving it an about 4% stake after new shares are issued. In August, Intel secured another $2 billion from SoftBank.
After U.S. President Donald Trump called for CEO Lip Bu Tan’s resignation over China ties, a hastily arranged Washington meeting produced an unusual deal involving the U.S. government taking a 10% stake for $8.9 billion.
The moves hand Intel a critical cash lifeline after ousted CEO Pat Gelsinger’s manufacturing expansion strained margins following years of missteps.
But scant details on the deals have left Wall Street waiting for clarity on their potential benefits.
The company is expected to record a per-share loss of 22 cents in the third quarter, and adjusted per-share earnings of 1 cent.
Intel’s per-share earnings in the September quarter could be impacted by share dilution from the government deal and depending on the close of Nvidia and Softbank’s agreements, per-share profit could be hurt in the fourth quarter, said Ryuta Makino, analyst at Intel investor Gabelli Funds.
“It will lead to dilution, but in my opinion, share dilution is the least of Intel shareholders’ worries.”
PROBLEMS PERSIST BUT END-MARKETS EXPANDING
While they’re seen as a vote of confidence in Intel’s future, analysts and investors agree the recent funding deals don’t alleviate Intel’s long-standing issues.
Intel has been consistently losing share in the personal computer and server central processing unit (CPU) market to AMD, while Arm-based architecture poses a threat to its legacy x86 chip blueprint.
However, overall end-market demand is improving as a Windows refresh cycle boosts sales, with preliminary results from research firm Gartner showing an 8% boost in worldwide third-quarter PC shipments.
Intel’s PC chip unit is expected to log an 11% jump to $8.12 billion, amid a ramp up in production of its Panther Lake PC processor – the first chip made on its 18A manufacturing technology – with the initial units slated to ship before end-2025.
The success of its 18A manufacturing node is instrumental to Intel’s contract manufacturing business, after Tan significantly pared back his predecessor Gelsinger’s hefty expansion plans.
The manufacturing segment is expected to report flat revenue at $4.37 billion in the third quarter.
Analysts expect sales in Intel’s data center unit to grow 18% to $3.95 billion.
While Intel has failed to gain traction in the booming artificial intelligence graphics processor industry dominated by Nvidia, the rapid build-out of data center capacity has expanded the market for its server CPUs used alongside GPUs.
Intel revived efforts to make its mark on the GPU market with a new AI chip for data centers slated for launch next year.
“The markets are giving Intel a major pass on their current struggles,” said Equity Armor’s Tigay.
“Intel has a great deal of leeway based on the expectations of what the new partnerships will bring and their new product designs.”
(Reporting by Arsheeya Bajwa; Editing by Saumyadeb Chakrabarty)
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