Hurricane Erin further weakened to a Category 3 storm early Sunday morning as it churned over the Atlantic Ocean north of the Caribbean. Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center in Miami said the storm will see “fluctuations in intensity” over the next few days “due to inner-core structural changes.”
Erin, the first Atlantic hurricane of 2025, exploded to Category 5 on Saturday before weakening, with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph as of Sunday. The storm’s center was about 170 miles north of San Juan, Puerto Rico and about 270 miles east of the Grand Turk Island, moving west-northwest at 14 mph.
Still a major storm, a Category 3 hurricane is defined as having maximum sustained winds between 111 and 129 mph.
Erin is expected to remain powerful for the next several days, forecasters said.
“You’re dealing with a major hurricane. The intensity is fluctuating. It’s a dangerous hurricane in any event,” said Richard Pasch of the National Hurricane Center.
While Erin’s maximum winds diminished, the storm’s overall size grew. A tropical storm warning was issued for the Turks and Caicos Islands, and winds and heavy rains are whipping the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
A tropical storm warning means tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, and in this case, within 24 hours, the NHC said. Heavy rain is still expected across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches, with 8 inches in some isolated areas.
Swells were also expected to affect portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos Islands during the next couple of days, the NHC reported.
The storm wasn’t expected to directly impact the U.S. East Coast, but by doubling or tripling in size, it could bring rip currents all along the Southeast coast. Gusty winds and flooding tides could wash out parts of the highway that connects the North Carolina Outer Banks by midweek, the National Weather Service said.
What is an eyewall replacement cycle?
The hurricane center disclosed Saturday night that Erin was undergoing an “eyewall replacement cycle,” which, according to CBS News meteorologist Nikki Nolan, is when the storm has become so significantly powerful that its eyewall, its strongest part, reaches maximum strength.
When this happens, Nolan said, the eyewall itself becomes so intense from intaking the available energy from its environment that a new eyewall will begin to build on the outside of the existing, inner eyewall. Once the new eyewall is created, it cuts off the fuel to the original eyewall.
Furthermore, as the new eyewall gains strength to keep up with the power of the storm, the radius of the eye itself will become much larger than it originally was, Nolan said.
This process may cause the storm to weaken temporarily, and its wind speeds may slow as it regains strength.
According to Nolan, however, after this process, the storm could emerge even stronger than it was before.
Maps show Hurricane Erin’s forecast path
Erin’s path continued to curve northward, with the center of the hurricane passing just to the north of the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico.
The northern Leewards stretch from the Virgin Islands to Guadeloupe and include St. Martin, St. Barts and other islands.
A “spaghetti map” of the forecast models shows the storm skirting the Caribbean islands and remaining well offshore of the U.S. East Coast as it moves north.
A high-pressure system in the Atlantic was expected to steer Erin away from the Eastern Seaboard while a cold front was also forecast to push the hurricane offshore, CBS News Bay Area meteorologist Jessica Burch reported.
On the U.S. Virgin Islands, officials with the National Park Service announced that sites on the island of St. Croix would be closed starting late Friday afternoon until after the storm passes.
First hurricane of the Atlantic season
Erin formed as a tropical storm on Monday west of the island nation of Cabo Verde, a few hundred miles off Africa’s western coast. It is the fifth named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which started in June and runs through November.
So far this year, Tropical Storm Chantal is the only one to have made landfall in the U.S., bringing deadly flooding to North Carolina in early July. In June, Barry made landfall as a tropical depression on Mexico’s eastern coast.
Erin’s increased strength comes as the Atlantic hurricane season approaches its peak in September. According to the hurricane center, most of the season’s activity typically happens between mid-August and mid-October. In the eastern Pacific Ocean, hurricane season starts on May 15 with a peak in activity typically seen in late August.
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, forecast an above-normal season for the Atlantic this year, expecting between 13 and 18 named storms.
Tropical storms have maximum sustained winds of at least 39 mph. Forecasters with NOAA anticipated that between five and nine of the storms this year could become hurricanes, which have sustained winds of at least 74 mph. Hurricanes are rated on a scale based on their wind speeds, ranging from Category 1, the weakest, to Category 5, the most severe rating.
NOAA forecasters predicted there could be between two and five major hurricanes in the Atlantic this season.
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