No drug is quite like nicotine. When it hits your bloodstream, you’re sent on a ride of double euphoria: an immediate jolt of adrenaline, like a strong cup of coffee injected directly into your brain, along with the calming effect of a beer. Nicotine is what gets people hooked on cigarettes, despite their health risks and putrid smell. It is, in essence, what cigarette companies are selling, and what they’ve always been selling. Without nicotine, a cigarette is just smoldering leaves wrapped in some fancy paper.
But if the Biden administration gets its way, that’s essentially all cigarettes will be. Today, regulators at the FDA announced that they are pushing forward with a rule that would dramatically limit how much nicotine can go in a cigarette. The average cigarette nowadays is estimated to have roughly 17 milligrams of the drug. Under the new regulation, that would fall to less than one milligram. If enacted—still a big if—it would decimate the demand for cigarettes more effectively than any public-service announcement ever could.
The idea behind the proposal is to make cigarettes nonaddictive. One study found that some young people begin feeling the symptoms of nicotine addiction within a matter of days after starting to smoke. In 2022, roughly half of adult smokers tried to quit, but fewer than 10 percent were ultimately successful.
For that reason, the rule could permanently change smoking in America. The FDA insists that the proposal isn’t a ban per se. But in the rule’s intended effect, ban may indeed be an apt term. The FDA estimates that nearly 13 million people—more than 40 percent of current adult smokers—would quit smoking within one year of the rule taking effect. After all, why inhale cancerous fumes without even the promise of a buzz? By the end of the century, the FDA predicts, 4.3 million fewer people would die because of cigarettes. The agency’s move, therefore, should be wonderful news for just about everyone except tobacco executives. (Luis Pinto, a vice president at Reynolds American, which makes Camel and Newport cigarettes, told me in an email that the policy “would effectively eliminate legal cigarettes and fuel an already massive illicit nicotine market.”)
Still, there’s no telling whether the FDA’s idea will actually come to fruition. The regulation released today is just a proposal. For the next eight months, the public—including tobacco companies—will have the opportunity to comment on the proposal. Then the Trump administration can decide whether to finalize the regulation as is, make changes, or scrap it entirely. Donald Trump has not signaled what he will do, and his relationship to cigarettes is complicated. In 2017, his FDA commissioner put the idea of cutting the nicotine in cigarettes to nonaddictive levels on the agency’s agenda. But the tobacco industry has recently attempted to cozy up to the president-elect. A subsidiary of Reynolds donated $10 million to a super PAC backing Trump. Even if the Trump administration finalizes the rule, the FDA plans to give tobacco companies two years to comply, meaning that the earliest cigarettes would actually change would be fall 2027.
If Trump goes through with the rule, it may be the end of cigarettes. But although cigarettes might be inseparable from nicotine, nicotine is not inseparable from cigarettes. These days, people looking to consume the drug can pop a coffee-flavored Zyn in their upper lip or puff on a banana-ice-flavored e-cigarette. These products are generally safer than cigarettes because they do not burn tobacco, and it is tobacco smoke, not nicotine, that causes most of the harmful effects of cigarettes. FDA estimates that should cigarettes lose their nicotine, roughly half of current smokers would transition to other, safer products to get their fix, Brian King, the head of the FDA’s tobacco center, told me.
Whether nicotine’s staying power is a good thing is still unclear. Few people—even in the tobacco industry—will argue with a straight face that cigarettes are safe. Nicotine defenders, however, are far more common. In my time covering nicotine, I have spoken with plenty of people who emphatically believe that the drug helps them get through their day, and that their habit is no more shameful or harmful than an addiction to caffeine. There is clearly a market for these products. Just ask Philip Morris International, which earlier this year invested $600 million to build a new factory to meet surging demand for Zyn. But it’s true, too, that nicotine is addictive, regardless of how it’s consumed. There isn’t much data looking at long-term impacts of these new nicotine-delivery devices, but the effects of nicotine, such as increased heart rate and blood pressure, are enough to give cardiologists pause.
I promised my parents—both smokers during my childhood—that I’d never pick up a cigarette. I kept that promise. But about a year ago, I started to wonder just how bad safer forms of nicotine could actually be. (Mom, if you’re reading this, I’m sorry.) I found myself experimenting with Zyn. Doing so gave me a window into why my parents craved cigarettes, but it also quickly gave me a firsthand look at why it was always so hard for them to quit. My one-Zyn-a-day habit quickly became two, and two became four. And yet, each time the pouch hit my lip, that burst of dopamine seemed to get more and more lackluster. Soon enough, I was reaching for nicotine without even thinking about it. The FDA’s new proposal, if finalized, will mean that misguided teens (or, in my case, 33-year-olds) prone to experimentation won’t do so with deadly cigarettes. But that will be far from the end of America’s relationship with nicotine.
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