Conflict and instability are on the rise in Africa, leading to a new volatility that presents the continent with many challenges, experts say.
“It is evident that the traditional tools — peacekeeping, early warning, conflict mediation — are not working,” Jakkie Cilliers, Chairman of the Board of Trustees at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) in South Africa, says.
Africans do realize that they are primarily responsible, although the international community also has to play a role, he told DW.
Streamline diverging interests
In recent years, there have been coups in , , , and and attempts to overthrow governments in the and .
Peace is the product of local, national and , but it seems increasingly challenging to streamline these many diverging interests, political observers say.
Tensions have been rising among countries in the Horn of Africa due to regional disputes and internal conflicts.
Mediation has yielded little success in Sudan. The country faces one of the most challenging periods in its modern history as the ongoing conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) plunges the nation deeper into turmoil.
The war, which erupted in April 2023, has devastated communities, displaced millions and exacerbated an already .
And while governments aim to preserve their territorial integrity at all costs, international actors often prioritize a humanitarian-based vision focused on defending minorities, according to ISS research.
These different approaches can lead to disagreements about how to resolve conflicts: The most recent example of failed mediation: Planned face-to-face peace talks between and Rwanda were unexpectedly canceled in mid-December.
The meeting had raised hopes for an end to the decades-long conflict between the Congolese army and the , which is allegedly backed by Rwanda, in eastern Congo.
Kigali had made the signing of a peace agreement conditional on a direct dialogue between Congo and the M23 rebels, which Kinshasa refused.
‘Traditional peacekeeping is obviously not working’
According to the ISS, violent extremism has also spread due to the political and economic marginalization of some communities, difficulties of transitioning to democracy, and the failure of governments to modernize defense and security sectors.
“The traditional peacekeeping is obviously not working,” Cilliers told DW. It has opened up the opportunity for Russia’s and other mercenaries to come to the continent. Africa is the scene of global rivalry, not only between the US, China and Europe, but also new actors, particularly from the and .
Responses to this complex situation are inadequate, according to Cilliers. The inability for swift action in response to early warning is also exacerbated by African states resistant to interference to their internal affairs, Cilliers said: “The reality in an age of terror is that peacekeeping has not proven an adaquate response to terror.”
Many rebel groups have unclear political agendas that are difficult to translate into peace agreements. According to Hannah Tetteh, former UN special envoy to the Horn of Africa and former foreign minister of , the should take the lead when there is a challenge on the continent.
AU reform needed
The AU and the have not efficiently worked out their collaboration with regional organizations, according to Tetteh. There are gaps in this relationship, she said in a recent interview with International Crisis Group.African solutions to African problems would mean to restructure and improve the AU to deliver on its task.
Over the last eight years, the AU has been going through a process of reform, but it is incomplete, says Tetteh: It’s department of peace and security and the office of political affairs has been merged, “but is stretched to its limits and does not have enough people to do its job.”
According to the UN peace agreement database, 42% of all peace agreements have been in Africa. These include inter-state decolonization and regional accords.
While a number of peace agreements have failed to lay the foundations for lasting peace, there have been some important success stories, Alex Vines, Director of the Africa Program at the think tank Chatham House, told DW.
Weak states more responsive to pressure
Research on peacebuilding over the last 20 years has shown there has been great understanding of the mutually reinforcing relationship between peace and development, said Vines.
African peace processes are as diverse as its crisis and conflicts.
“Therefore, rather than following a single template they are driven by politics and circumstance, shaped by ad-hoc coalitions more frequently than adhering to formal conflict resolution structures,” he told DW. “This makes harmonizing efforts more difficult and crucial.”
High level African mediation has been crucial in achieving peace in a number of cases, for example in and recently in mediated by Turkey. Individuals who have moral authority and reputation for political will can drive and shape a peace notably in providing leadership that other external actors can rally behind.
But there are limits to what even the best mediation can achieve, Vines said. Smaller and weak states are more responsive to pressure from their bigger neighbors, while Africa’s most important players attract significant international attention helping to drive peace.
“It is the middle ground states where deals have been most elusive. Large enough to resist the region but not sufficiantly important to engage the globe,” said Vines.
Long term success relies on supporting a peace long after the guns have fallen silent, he stressed: “Processes that have been ending violence may not be up to deliver the long term political and social reforms that are needed.”
Edited by: Benita van Eyssen
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