When North Korean troops began arriving in Russia this fall, some Western officials believed it was a sign that the Kremlin had reached out in a desperate need for more soldiers.
But U.S. intelligence agencies have now assessed that the deployment was North Korea’s idea and not Russia’s, though President Vladimir V. Putin quickly embraced it, American officials say.
North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, has sent at least 10,000 troops to Russia, according to Ukrainian and Western estimates.
The North Koreans have largely embedded with Russian units mounting a counteroffensive against a contingent of Ukrainian soldiers that has been holding territory in the Kursk region of Russia since the summer.
U.S. officials do not believe Mr. Kim has received anything immediate in return. Instead, they say, he appears to be hoping that Russia will repay the favor in the future by offering support in diplomatic fights, assisting if a crisis breaks out and providing technology.
According to American and Ukrainian officials, the North Korean troops have now entered the fight in a major way, and some have been killed.
“We have seen these North Korean soldiers move from the second lines on the battlefield to the front lines on the battlefield meant to be actively engaged in combat operations,” John F. Kirby, the White House national security spokesman, said last week. “It’s not surprising — and of course, it’s also not surprising that now North Korean soldiers are suffering losses on the battlefield.”
A Ukrainian official who has been tracking the North Koreans’ movements said the forces were increasing their presence on the front lines and operating with Russian units.
The officials interviewed for this article spoke on the condition of anonymity to share sensitive military information and intelligence reports. They would not describe when, or how, the United States gathered the information on the discussions between the North Koreans and Russians. But they indicated that it was not immediately after the agreement was made or when the deployments began.
The Ukrainian official said that as many as 200 North Koreans had been killed and slightly more wounded, but cautioned that the Russians were trying to conceal those losses.
American officials said it was not clear how effective the North Korean troops have been. North Korea sent its best-trained special forces to the fight, but many appear to be malnourished.
And North Korean soldiers have no real-world combat experience.
The senior Ukrainian official said North Korean platoons do not seem to be fully integrated into the Russian fighting force and at times appeared to be operating independently, which has increased the risk of casualties.
At the same time, the official said, the North Korean troops seem to receive better medical treatment than their Russian counterparts. The wounded are often driven straight to larger hospitals in the city of Kursk, bypassing smaller, lower-quality village hospitals closer to the battlefield.
American officials said it was important to Russia to gain the support of North Korea and Iran, which have both provided military support during the war. That has allowed Russia to keep up an intense artillery barrage on the front lines and pressure Ukrainian cities with drone attacks on critical infrastructure.
On Monday, the U.S. Treasury Department announced new sanctions against banks, shipping companies and nine individuals in response to Mr. Kim’s support for Russia and North Korea’s missile testing.
“We’re going to continue to hold accountable all actors who facilitate financially and militarily Russia’s illegal and brutal war in Ukraine,” Mr. Kirby said.
The Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk region in August shocked the Kremlin and surprised even some of Ukraine’s allies. It was the first time in 10 years of fighting between the two countries, including Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, that Ukrainian troops had taken and held Russian territory.
American officials initially questioned the wisdom of Ukraine’s incursion and pointed out that it was a drain on resources badly needed on the front lines in Ukraine.
But some American officials have changed their assessment, saying that Ukraine has so far managed to kill a large number of counterattacking Russian forces without incurring many casualties.
Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, the commander of Ukraine’s forces, recently declared the Kursk operation a success. In an interview published on Tuesday in the French newspaper Le Monde, he said the offensive helped halt a Russian offensive in the Kharkiv region that was threatening Ukraine’s second-largest city, and helped stave off a new Russian offensive in a neighboring region.
“I had no choice,” General Syrsky said. “I had to carry out this operation.”
On Thursday, Mr. Putin vowed to expel the Ukrainian troops from western Russia.
“We will restore everything; have no doubt,” he said in during his traditional year-end news conference.
Both sides have suffered enormous casualties as the war approaches the three-year mark. Ukraine, the smaller of the two adversaries, is struggling to fill out its ranks even after lowering the draft age and starting a concerted mobilization effort. Ukraine’s allies have urged President Volodymyr Zelensky to lower the draft age even more.
Ukraine has also struggled with shortages of weapons, and in the United States, congressional Republicans have become increasingly reluctant to approve additional military aid.
Though Russian forces are making steady gains on the battlefield, they too have begun to feel the strain of their losses, according to Western assessments.
About 600,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded in the war, according to American estimates. And the rate of casualties has risen in the past month as Moscow has begun a drive to take back Kursk and claim more territory in eastern Ukraine.
Russia is also depleting its remaining military hardware at an accelerating rate.
President-elect Donald J. Trump has promised to pressure both Ukraine and Russia to make a peace deal. As a result, some Russian officials believe that their high losses will continue only for so long, but that their window to take more territory could be closing, U.S. officials said.
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