Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s Situation Report, where we’re still recovering from the lingering post-Thanksgiving food coma. Here’s what’s on tap for the day: Some key questions for the U.S. president-elect’s pledge to bring a rapid end to the war in Ukraine, the latest on the rebel advance in Syria, and the growing scrutiny of Defense Secretary-designate Pete Hegseth’s past.
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Elephants in the Room
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump announced last week that he had selected retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg to oversee what is likely to be one of the most high-profile foreign-policy portfolios of the next administration: Russia-Ukraine peace talks.
Trump has pledged to bring the war to an end quickly, and a variety of peace plans have been floated by his allies—though the Trump team is reported to be far from settled on a single approach to the conflict.
In an April report, Kellogg and Fred Fleitz, who served as chief of staff at the National Security Council during the first Trump administration, proposed freezing the front lines and using both carrots and sticks, including a potential cutoff of military aid to Ukraine, to coax Kyiv and Moscow to the negotiating table.
(Interestingly—Kellogg and Fleitz seem to have drawn some of their inspiration from a 2023 Foreign Affairs article by foreign-policy establishment grandee Richard Haass and Georgetown University professor Charles Kupchan, which is cited twice in their report.)
While the Trump team’s approach to ending the war has received significant scrutiny, major questions remain, including how the warring parties, Russia and Ukraine—not to mention NATO allies in Europe that have played a significant role in bolstering Kyiv’s defense—may respond.
Here are some of our biggest questions for future Russia-Ukraine peace talks.
How will Ukraine respond? Ukraine has shown a willingness to enter into peace talks to end the war.
Despite Trump’s curious affinity for Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ukrainian officials frustrated with the Biden administration’s deliberative and at times hesitant approach to the war are cautiously optimistic that they can navigate Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy.
In an interview with Japan’s Kyodo News this month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he seeks an end to the war and to retake Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory through diplomacy, not force. Despite his bullish promises earlier in the war to reclaim all of Ukraine’s territory—including the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia annexed in 2014—Zelensky acknowledged that he was unlikely to achieve that through military means.
“Our army lacks the strength to do that. That is true,” he said in the interview. “We do have to find diplomatic solutions.”
However, Zelensky remains committed to securing NATO membership for his country, seeing it as integral to deterring future Russian aggression. The Trump team—not to mention a number of other NATO member states—is likely to balk at the idea, setting it up to be a major flash point in future negotiations.
What about Russia? Trump will enter the White House as the Russian military, while badly battered, is making grinding gains on the battlefield in eastern Ukraine. Russia’s war aims—the complete subjugation of its southern neighbor—remain unchanged. That raises the obvious question: When it comes to making peace, what’s in it for Moscow?
Trump allies have floated a number of ideas, including sanctions relief and putting Ukraine’s future NATO membership on ice.
But with Putin having recently approved a record-breaking defense budget that will account for one-third of Russian government spending, it is unclear what it would take to persuade the Russian leader to lay down his arms in a war that he has staked his legacy on.
The early signs are not promising. “Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and then tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it. That’d be the whole negotiation,” Russian oligarch and Putin ally Konstantin Malofeyev told the Financial Times in a recent interview.
On Monday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov suggested that Ukraine’s Western backers would use a cease-fire to surge long-range weapons to the country. “This is certainly not the way to peace,” he said.
Another question: Would Moscow abide by a peace deal, and if so, for how long? Zelensky has warned that Putin could take a pause in fighting to rearm and regroup. “A pause would play into [Russia’s] hands. It might crush us afterward,” he said in January.
What about Europe? While the United States is by far the biggest provider of military aid to Ukraine, NATO allies in Europe have also played a critical role in bolstering Kyiv throughout the war—and beyond Ukraine, they would be most likely to pay the price if Putin emerges emboldened.
Little has been said as to what role—if any—allies on the continent could play in Trump’s vision for peace talks. Vice President-elect J.D. Vance has suggested that Trump would leave it to the Europeans to work out the details of any peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia.
With the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion looming and no military victory in sight, some in Europe may be breathing a quiet sigh of relief that at least a change in tack is on the horizon. “I do think some [Europeans] will be secretly pleased that a deal is possible, so they don’t have to spend more money on Ukraine and so that the killing stops,” said Jim Townsend, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense for Europe and NATO.
“They may object and say all kinds of things about abandoning the Ukrainians to the Russians, but they are not ready for war over Ukraine and Putin was making them nervous, especially after the IRBM launch two weeks ago,” he said in an email, referring to Russia’s use of an intermediate-range ballistic missile to attack Ukraine last month.
What is driving Trump? The president-elect’s pledge to quickly end the war—in one day, to be precise—represents a 180-degree pivot from the approach of U.S. President Joe Biden, who has vowed to defend Ukraine “as long as it takes.”
Whereas Biden portrayed the conflict as part of a global struggle between autocracy and democracy while also trying to avoid a direct U.S. confrontation with Russia, Trump is far more focused on the latter, said Sumantra Maitra, the director of research and outreach at the American Ideas Institute.
“The President-Elect is clearly someone who prefers free and fair trade, and a cold great power equilibrium,” Maitra said in an email to Foreign Policy. “I’d suggest his primary interest is avoiding a reckless spiral towards great power war.”
An enduring peace agreement to end the war in Ukraine could take months or even years of painstaking diplomacy. Does Trump have the patience to ride it out? “He wants a quick deal,” Townsend said. “I think Trump will work the negotiations the way he did the awful negotiations with the Taliban, it will be done quietly, by a small group of Trump advisors with the closers being Trump and Putin themselves.”
Let’s Get Personnel
The latest Trump nominations:
- Kash Patel, FBI director
- Daniel Driscoll, secretary of the Army
- Jared Isaacman, NASA administrator
- Adam Boehler, special presidential envoy for hostage affairs
- Keith Kellogg, special envoy for Ukraine and Russia
- Michael Whatley, to remain as chair of the Republican National Committee
- Michael Faulkender, deputy Treasury secretary
- Paul Atkins, chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission
- Monica Crowley, chief of protocol at the State Department
- David Warrington, White House counsel
- William McGinley, counsel to the new Department of Government Efficiency
- Charles Kushner, ambassador to France
- Warren Stephens, ambassador to the United Kingdom
Another withdrawal. Chad Chronister, a Florida sheriff, has withdrawn himself from consideration as Trump’s nominee to lead the Drug Enforcement Administration, becoming the second nominee to drop out (so far). Chronister said he had stepped back after the “gravity of this very important responsibility” had set in. Trump disputed this and said he had withdrawn the nomination.
An enduring mystery. Once thought to be a leading contender to become secretary of state, former acting Director of National Intelligence Ric Grenell has yet to be appointed to a position in the second Trump administration.
In non-Trump career news. Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has joined Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs as a senior fellow.
On the Button
What should be high on your radar, if it isn’t already.
A surprise in Syria. A rebel offensive in Syria has succeeded in taking its second major city in a week, as government forces announced on Thursday that they were withdrawing from the city of Hama, the fourth-largest in the country, “to preserve civilian lives and prevent urban combat” after intense clashes.
Over the weekend, a patchwork of rebel groups led by the militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham launched a surprise offensive from their stronghold in the northwest of the country, seizing the city of Aleppo in a matter of days before pushing south toward Hama, which has never been under rebel control since the civil war began in 2011. Capturing the city could be a make-or-break point for the rebel groups’ advance, Charles Lister, the director of the Syria program at the Middle East Institute, told NBC News.
The rebels’ unexpected advance has likely upended a quiet diplomatic push by the United States and Gulf Arab leaders to try to persuade longtime Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad to abandon his vital military alliance with Tehran and its proxy Hezbollah. While officials had hoped to take advantage of the recent blow dealt to Iran and its proxies in the region by Israel, the rebel offensive is likely to drive an embattled Assad further into Tehran’s arms.
A surprise in South Korea. South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol imposed martial law late Tuesday evening local time, before lifting it several hours later after a mass public outcry. In a late-night address, Yoon accused the country’s main opposition party of sympathizing with North Korea.
The United States, which has thousands of troops stationed in the country, was not given advance notice of Yoon’s plans, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in an interview with Reuters on Wednesday.
Yoon, whose popularity has been battered by a series of scandals since taking office in 2022, has repeatedly clashed with the opposition Democratic Party, which holds a majority in the National Assembly. After Yoon’s surprise declaration, lawmakers rushed to the country’s legislature for an emergency session, and within a matter of hours, those in attendance unanimously voted to end martial law. Opposition parties have now called for a vote to begin impeaching Yoon, which is likely to be held at the end of this week and requires a two-thirds majority to pass.
Hegseth’s wobbles. Speculation has continued to mount as to the future of Pete Hegseth, Trump’s nominee for defense secretary, as a series of allegations have come to light in recent weeks regarding his treatment of women and drinking habits—most notably an eye-popping report from the New Yorker’s Jane Mayer.
Hegseth has strenuously denied the allegations and remains defiant, telling conservative radio host Megyn Kelly on Wednesday that he still had Trump’s support and plans to “fight like hell” to secure his confirmation. In an op-ed published by the Wall Street Journal on Wednesday, Hegseth defended his record of working for veterans’ causes and decried the allegations in the press as a “show trial.”
Amnesty accuses Israel of genocide. A scathing investigation released by Amnesty International on Thursday accuses Israel of committing genocide against Palestinians in Gaza. The report “demonstrates that Israel has carried out acts prohibited under the Genocide Convention, with the specific intent to destroy Palestinians in Gaza,” Amnesty Secretary-General Agnès Callamard said in a press release, marking the first time the human rights group has accused Israel of the crime of genocide. Israel has consistently denied the allegation.
One startling conclusion among many in the report: Amnesty reviewed the circumstances of 15 Israeli airstrikes between Oct. 7, 2023, and April 20, 2024, that killed at least 334 civilians, including 141 children. “Amnesty International did not find any evidence that any of the strikes were directed at a military objective,” the report concluded.
Snapshot
Put On Your Radar
Dec. 7: Ghana holds a general election.
Dec. 8: Romania holds a presidential election runoff.
Dec. 10: The Nobel Prize award ceremony takes place in Stockholm.
Quote of the Week
“Respectful, but also aggressive.”
—Vivek Ramaswamy, a co-lead of Trump’s new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), discussing the manner in which DOGE’s potential cuts to the federal workforce should be carried out, at the Aspen Security Forum in Washington on Wednesday.
FP’s Most Read This Week
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made a hasty trip to Trump’s home in Mar-a-Lago, Florida, last Friday after the president-elect threatened to levy tariffs of 25 percent against the United States’ northern neighbor. Over dinner, Trump became “animated” over the United States’ trade deficit with Canada, which he put to be around $100 billion, Fox News reported, citing sources in the room. Trump then said to Trudeau that Canada could become the 51st U.S. state, “which caused the prime minister and others to laugh nervously,” Fox reported.
Canadian officials were quick to downplay the news after it broke this week. “In a three-hour social evening at the president’s residence in Florida on a long weekend of American Thanksgiving, the conversation was going to be lighthearted,” said Canadian Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc, who attended the dinner. “The president was telling jokes. The president was teasing us.” Let’s hope so, eh?
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