BERLIN — High-ranking officials in Russia’s defense ministry doubt whether NATO countries would adhere to the “mutual defense” clause enshrined in the NATO Treaty if an ally was attacked, according to the head of Germany’s foreign intelligence service.
While a large-scale attack on a NATO country is not expected, Moscow could, for example, stage a limited intervention under the pretext of protecting Russian minorities, said Bruno Kahl, chief of the BND intelligence service. The idea would be to test NATO’s resolve to invoke Article 5 of the treaty, which obliges alliance members to provide assistance in case of an attack on another NATO country.
“There are currently no indications of Russia’s concrete intentions for war” against NATO, Kahl said at an event organized by German foreign policy think tank DGAP, according to several German media reports.
“But if such views gain the upper hand in the government headquarters in Moscow, the risk of a military conflict will grow in the coming years,” he said.
“From Russia’s point of view, [success] would be achieved if Article 5 had no effect in the event of an attack,” Kahl added.
NATO’s Article 5 clause is a major safeguard, especially for more vulnerable countries like the Baltics, because it would in theory mean, for example, that the United States would intervene with all its military power if Russia attacked — acting as a powerful deterrent.
But there have been growing worries in Europe over the reliability of the decades-old U.S. commitment to European security too. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has said he would “encourage” Russia to attack any NATO member country that didn’t meet its financial obligations to the defense alliance.
Russia’s armed forces would, in terms of equipment and personnel, be in a position to launch an attack against NATO by the end of the decade, Kahl said, adding that Russia’s focus would “certainly not be on a large-scale land grab” but rather on creating a split inside NATO.
Kahl also warned about Russian interference in the run-up to Germany’s snap election planned for Feb. 23.
The Kremlin’s aim is to stir up social conflicts by analyzing issues such as climate politics in detail, which are then “naively parroted” by the right and left fringes of the political spectrum in Germany, Kahl said. “Of course, this has an impact on the elections, on the election results,” he said.
In a separate diplomatic rift, Moscow on Wednesday expelled two journalists from Germany’s public broadcaster ARD in response to German moves against reporters from Russia. That led the foreign ministry in Berlin to summon the Russian ambassador on Thursday.
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