As it turns out, it’s possible to make peace in the Middle East as well as war: President Biden has announced that both Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a cease-fire, and Israel’s cabinet members have approved the plan. A truce seems tantalizingly close.
A cease-fire would be a triumph for President Biden and his foreign policy aides, who worked for months to avert an all-out war between Israel and Lebanon and then, once it began, labored to end it. Biden said that the deal should lead to a permanent cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah and that he hoped it would be a prelude to an end to the war in Gaza.
That will be the crucial test: Can the cease-fire change the political and security landscape in Lebanon so that peace is durable, and can it in turn lead to an end to the horrific war and starvation in Gaza? I’m skeptical on both fronts, especially the latter.
Israel’s war in Lebanon was largely successful militarily. Israel badly degraded Hezbollah, the militia that had attacked Israel’s north, a major setback to Iran. After past wars, Hezbollah rebuilt its capacity and ignored cease-fire restrictions, so it’s unclear if the calm will truly be permanent.
Then, there’s Gaza. While the destruction and loss of life in Lebanon were terrible, they have been far worse in Gaza. More than 3,000 children under the age of five have been killed in Gaza, according to Save the Children, and the winter rains are now making everything worse.
“Winter in Gaza means people will not only die because of airstrikes, diseases or hunger,” said Philippe Lazzarini, the Swiss-Italian humanitarian official who runs UNRWA, the United Nations agency that is a lifeline for the Palestinian territories. “Winter in Gaza means more people will die shivering because of the cold, especially among the most vulnerable.”
It’s still unclear what Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to achieve by continuing the war in Gaza or what his postwar plans are, all of which makes it difficult to negotiate an end to fighting. For now, Netanyahu seems willing to let the suffering continue indefinitely for Gazans and Israeli hostages alike.
So bravo to Biden and his team for apparently achieving a deal in Lebanon. May they now use every bit of leverage they have — including holding back transfers of certain offensive weapons to Israel, as some Democratic senators have sought — to end the humanitarian nightmare in Gaza.
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