When José Pérez Gómez came from Mexico more than 25 years ago, he scraped together money by selling handmade furniture on the streets of Fresno, Calif. Eventually, he turned that hustle into a full-fledged brick-and-mortar business, which allowed him to raise a family and send two daughters to college.
And when Mr. Pérez Gómez, 49, became eligible to participate in his first presidential election four years ago, he voted for Joseph R. Biden Jr. because he was turned off by Donald J. Trump’s negative rhetoric about Latinos and other people of color.
But this time, he said, he voted for Mr. Trump.
Democrats had assumed that Mr. Trump’s threat of mass deportations and harsh words toward migrants would sour Latino voters across the country, especially those with family or friends who were undocumented.
But for Mr. Pérez Gómez, personal economic struggles took precedence. Furthermore, he said, many immigrants in California’s Central Valley actually agreed with Mr. Trump that Democrats had allowed too many people to cross the border with the lure of asylum protections. Friends and relatives had spent decades toiling in the fields and paying taxes with no legal pathway.
“Suddenly in one year, millions of people come in with all the rights without having contributed anything to the country,” Mr. Pérez Gómez said. “So a lot of people feel defrauded.”
Fresno, with more than 546,000 residents, would be the largest city in most states, yet it is often overshadowed in California because it lacks the glamour of Los Angeles, the tech riches of San Francisco or the idyllic oceanfront weather of San Diego. The city seems closer in character to a Midwestern capital than the Silicon Valley, and many residents prefer it that way, including newcomers from the coast who have sought bigger homes and less traffic here.
It is the center of a vast agricultural region where major food companies grow and pack billions of dollars worth of produce to send around the world. Farm jobs have for generations attracted Latino immigrants, who over time have reshaped the demographics in Fresno, which is now more than 50 percent Hispanic.
But demographics did not determine destiny in this election.
In California, it has long been assumed that the Republicans’ hard push in the 1990s against undocumented immigrants, defined by former Gov. Pete Wilson’s efforts to restrict benefits, had sent most Latino voters to the Democratic Party for good. Since that time, Latino residents have become a plurality in the state, and Democrats have secured control of the Legislature and a complete grip on statewide offices since 2010. Latino leaders have also risen to some of the highest positions of power and gained representation across the state.
The state’s Latino voters still overwhelmingly support Democrats. But in Fresno, where residents are more moderate politically than those on the coast, no party has a lock on the electorate. And for the first time in 20 years, Fresno County, which includes the city of Fresno and outlying areas, supported a Republican for president.
Economic struggles largely drove the flip. But based on interviews with voters and political leaders, some Latino voters also expressed frustration after waiting decades for Democrats to pass comprehensive immigration reform, such as a pathway to legal status for undocumented family members.
“The people got tired of waiting 20 years or probably more without having a single result other than false promises,” Mr. Pérez Gómez said. “And then here comes the economy to combine with that.”
Like many Democrats still coming to terms with this month’s election results, Marsha Conant, the vice chairwoman of the Fresno County Democratic Party, was struggling to understand why Latinos were not more concerned about Mr. Trump’s recent promises to conduct mass deportations, and possibly use the military to do so.
“We need to get out there and talk to people more,” she said. “Perhaps the Latino vote was taken for granted. I don’t think it will be again.”
She and other Democrats are fearful that under Mr. Trump, undocumented immigrants will get swept up in raids by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, potentially separating families in which some members have legal status and others do not. They also wonder what could happen to participants in the DACA program, which has protected hundreds of thousands of young immigrants from being deported, Ms. Conant said.
“The next few years have the potential to be somewhat horrific for the people who voted for him,” she said.
Like other Americans, Latinos in Fresno County were angered by high inflation under President Biden. Though incomes rose, many believed that they were able to better afford groceries, utilities and rent during Mr. Trump’s first term.
Esmeralda Soria, the Democratic assemblywoman representing Fresno, said she won re-election despite a nationwide backlash against incumbents by focusing on her own accomplishments for the region rather than on the party’s national message.
“I was very intentional about focusing on my race,” she said. “Latinos want to feel like they’re connected to someone that they know and are going to meet the needs that they want.”
More than two-thirds of Fresno County’s unauthorized immigrant population in 2021 have been in the United States for more than a decade.
Some Latino voters in Fresno County said they resented that migrants from around the world were allowed to cross the border with greater benefits than the people they knew had.
Oscar Santana, 64, came to the United States from Mexico in 1986 and because of his time working in the fields was able to attain legal status under the amnesty program signed by President Ronald Reagan.
“Why doesn’t he fix papers instead for people already here?” Mr. Santana, a fervent Trump supporter, said of President Biden.
Democrats have argued that Mr. Biden did try to create a path to citizenship for undocumented workers, including a proposal that he introduced on his first day as president in 2021, but that Republicans blocked it and the border crisis consumed too much political energy.
The thought that Mr. Trump would be better for undocumented immigrants in the Central Valley might defy logic for Democratic officials like Ms. Conant. Mr. Trump has threatened to deport millions of undocumented immigrants, including those who have lived in the United States for years.
But some Trump voters said they believed that his talk of mass deportation was a bluff and that his rhetoric against immigrants was bluster based on his performance in his first term, such as when he failed to complete the southern border wall and force Mexico to pay for it.
Mr. Pérez Gómez and Mr. Santana also said they believed that if Mr. Trump did deport undocumented immigrants, he would target only people with criminal records, which they welcomed.
And Fernando Banuelos, the son of Mexican American farmers who lived through chaotic immigration sweeps in the Central Valley during the 1970s, said he believed Republicans would face too much political backlash in the area if they tried to deport farmworkers. Mr. Banuelos, 64, a longtime Republican, felt that fierce raids and the separation of families with mixed immigration status would undo the inroads Republicans have made with Latinos in recent elections.
“If he does that,” Mr. Banuelos said of Mr. Trump, “you’re going to have an uproar of people, even the police, that are going to say, ‘We’re not going to do it.’”
Already, law enforcement officials in Fresno County said this week that they would not help enforce federal immigration laws.
Still, undocumented immigrants here have palpable anxiety, according to Jesus Martinez, the executive director of the Central Valley Immigrant Integration Collaborative, a coalition of various nonprofits.
The number of people attending some immigration service workshops has almost tripled since the election, Mr. Martinez said. And some are reluctant to enroll in Medi-Cal, the state’s Medicaid program that is open to undocumented residents, because they are afraid of providing personal information to the government.
Luis Chavez, a Fresno city councilman who was recently elected to the county’s board of supervisors, has revived meetings with several local immigration groups to figure out ways to teach people about their rights when they are approached by officials who ask about their status. The organizations also want to help qualified immigrants finish the process of naturalization. Similar efforts were conducted during Mr. Trump’s first term.
As a Democratic city councilman in Fresno, Mr. Chavez secured $100,000 to create an immigrant defense fund to help people pay their legal expenses.
For more than a year and a half, Mr. Chavez knocked on doors around Fresno County and was surprised to see signs supporting his campaign next to those endorsing Mr. Trump. When he asked voters why they supported the former president, many mentioned the economy but also the Democrats’ failure to provide a legal pathway for citizenship.
“They keep dangling the immigration carrot in front of us, and it’s never been delivered,” he said.
In his conversations with voters, Mr. Chavez said some Latinos held contempt for the new migrants because they or their parents did not receive the same benefits when they moved to the United States.
“They tend to forget the struggle and hardships of newly arrived immigrants,” Mr. Chavez said.
The new migrants, Mr. Chavez was told, “shouldn’t have it as easy” as the Democrats were allowing.
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