America goes to the polls
It’s Election Day. A third of voters have already cast their ballots in one of the most unconventional, expensive and tightest presidential campaigns in history.
Donald Trump steamrolled the Republican field to get the party nomination. Trailing in the polls, President Biden stepped aside in July. That set the stage for Vice President Kamala Harris, and the big money followed.
Typically outspoken business leaders stayed quiet, partly over worries about retribution if Trump wins (more on that below). In Silicon Valley, a left-right split burst into the open.
No tech tycoon was more present in this campaign than Elon Musk, who has used his money, his X account and public rallies to go all-in for Trump. What could be his reward? A role in a Trump government? A path to more government contracts?
One topic that has united many big-money donors to both candidates was an antipathy to the Biden administration’s tough approach to regulation. Some called openly for Lina Khan to be replaced as the F.T.C. chair.
You can follow The Times’s coverage here and below, DealBook outlines what you need to know today, and what to expect after the polls close.
What are the markets doing?
Trading in U.S. stock futures and European shares was subdued on Tuesday, a typical showing for Election Day. In 2016 and 2020, the S&P 500 rallied in the weeks after a winner was named. But such an outcome is hardly certain this time, especially given high stock valuations and uncertainty about global growth.
A best case for markets? A “gridlock scenario” that would force investors to shift focus away from politics, Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, an equity strategist at JPMorgan Chase, wrote this week in a client note. The worst: an inconclusive outcome.
When will we know the result?
It could be another long wait, especially if vote margins are tight enough to prompt a recount battle. In 2020, it took four days before The Associated Press called the race for Joe Biden. In 2022, it took eight to learn which party had won the House.
All eyes will be on the battleground states where the election will probably be decided. In Georgia, polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern; North Carolina at 7:30 p.m.; Pennsylvania at 8 p.m.; and Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Iowa at 9 p.m.; with Nevada at 10 p.m. (Here are the poll-closing times for all states.)
What if the results are contested?
It’s a distinct possibility. Trump told supporters on Sunday that he “shouldn’t have left” the White House at the end of his term, adding to concerns that the transition of power will be rocky. And super PACs supporting both parties have amassed a war chest to file legal challenges, and counterclaims. (This cycle has already seen more election-related suits filed than in 2020.)
Despite a measure meant to modernize the electoral count procedure and avoid a repeat of the messy 2020 outcome, a number of legal challenges could still be introduced. Election experts think it’s unlikely that the Supreme Court will play a big role this time, but it’s not being ruled out.
The Times will cover and debunk election-related misinformation. You can follow along here.
What’s at stake for business and the economy?
The two candidates have made drastically different pitches.
Taxes. Donald Trump has vowed to extend tax cuts that he passed in office that are due to expire at the end of next year and further reduce corporate taxes. Harris says she will increase the corporate tax rate and will raise taxes on Americans making more than $1 million a year — but by less than Biden had promised.
Tariffs. Trump has threatened to raise tariffs on almost all imported goods, including by at least 60 percent on all goods from China. That’s despite opposition from some industries and warnings that his policies could accelerate inflation and stifle global economy. Harris has promised to continue Biden’s use of targeted tariffs and called Trump’s plan a “tax” on consumers.
Energy. Big Oil has made huge profits under Biden, even as he has poured billions of dollars into green energy via the Inflation Reduction Act. Harris will maintain that push to bolster clean energy. Trump has promised to cut regulation, end Biden’s green energy subsidies and open up more federal land to drilling.
The deficit. Both candidates’ policies would add to the federal deficit, with Trump’s plan adding much more.
What else is on the ballot?
Voters in 17 states and the District of Columbia will decide on ballot initiatives that would change some election rules, including by doing away with traditional party primaries or moving to ranked-choice voting.
In 10 states, voters will decide whether to enshrine the right to abortion in their state constitution; in six, they’ll vote on whether to increase the minimum wage or make paid sick leave legally required; and in a number of states, they’ll decide whether to legalize marijuana or some psychedelics.
And 34 Senate seats are up for grabs. Here are the races that could determine control of the chamber.
HERE’S WHAT (ELSE) IS HAPPENING
Boeing workers end their strike. Employees at the plane maker’s factories in the Seattle area voted to approve a new contract, bringing to a close one of the country’s most financially damaging work stoppages in decades. Their wages will rise by more than 43 percent over the next four years, up significantly from the first proposal Boeing offered.
Saudi Aramco reports a big drop in quarterly earnings. The state-controlled oil giant said its net profit in the third quarter dropped 15.4 percent year-on-year because of “lower crude prices,” despite efforts by the kingdom to prop up the price of the commodity. Nevertheless, the company maintained its $31 billion dividend. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia drew top international financiers to its Future Investment Initiative conference last week.
Energy stocks fall after a regulator rejects an electricity deal for a data center. Shares in Constellation Energy, Talen Energy and Vistra dropped on Monday after the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission turned down an application for increased power for an Amazon facility in Pennsylvania. The decision raises questions about how much utilities can stand to benefit from Big Tech’s push into mega data centers that power their artificial intelligence efforts.
Meta will let its A.I. models be used for U.S. national security purposes. The tech giant said that federal government agencies and contractors could do work built upon its open-source artificial intelligence software for “responsible and ethical” purposes. It is an exception to a company policy that forbids the use of such tools for “military, warfare, nuclear industries” and similar applications, and thrusts Meta into the debate within Silicon Valley over military use of advanced technologies.
Are business leaders finally ready to speak out?
Corporate America has largely stayed silent about the election, fearful of political backlash, employee discontent and potential retribution by Donald Trump. But as worries of potential civil unrest mount, some business leaders are deliberating when’s the time to speak up.
On Monday afternoon, the Partnership for New York City, a nonprofit group representing some of the city’s largest companies, organized a call with Dana Remus, the lead lawyer for Kamala Harris’s campaign, to discuss businesses’ role in the event of post-election unrest, DealBook’s Lauren Hirsch reports.
The call aimed to help the Partnership for New York City decide whether to weigh in after the last presidential election. The group, which includes some of the country’s most influential C.E.O.s, had urged Congress in 2021 to certify the election results. (Monday’s call included C.E.O.s, communications advisers and other executives.)
“Before the election, taking a stand would be a partisan political statement,” Kathryn Wylde, the group’s C.E.O., recalled saying on the call. But “if there’s violence — or a threat of political instability, or a contested transition” after the election, she told DealBook, “major employers and business leaders will engage.”
Remus also walked attendees through how election legal challenges might play out, especially in light of legal changes that makes it more difficult to invalidate elections.
Business leaders have been reluctant to wade in. Many say that even talking about the peaceful transition of power is political. But amid high levels of misinformation and distrust in institutions including government and the media, corporate leaders have faced more pressure to publicly call for stability.
“Voting rights and support for democracy is not a partisan issue,” Ken Chenault, the former C.E.O. of American Express, said at a briefing with business leaders last month. “And it’s critical that business leaders support that.”
Other business groups are beginning to speak up, even if cautiously. The National Association of Manufacturers — which called for invoking the 25th Amendment after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol — released a statement on Tuesday morning to the eventual “president-elect” stressing the need for unity.
From the letter, which was signed by C.E.O.s including Blake Moret of Rockwell Automation and Mark Smucker of the J.M. Smucker Company:
The peaceful transition of power is a hallmark of our democracy and is essential to ensuring continued confidence in the rule of law — a commitment that has made America exceptional.
As leaders of industries that drive America’s promise, you can count on us as steadfast partners in this work and in building our future together.
The DealBook quiz, election edition
Markets have been soaring this year as excitement about artificial intelligence has driven up Big Tech stocks. But on Election Day four years ago, the focus was very different. The I.P.O. of Ant Group, Jack Ma’s online payments goliath, was the big story. (Reminder: it never happened.) SPACs were the investment rage, as were work-from-home darlings, such as Zoom Video Communications.
On that same morning, Brent crude was trading around $39 a barrel. The global benchmark has rocketed higher since then, more than doubling after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and is now up 90 percent.
Which financial asset, or index has outperformed Brent?
The S&P 500
Bitcoin
Gold
The answer? Bitcoin. The digital token has nearly quintupled in value since Election Day 2020, as crypto bulls hope that whoever wins will be more crypto-friendly.
THE SPEED READ
Deals
Shari Redstone reportedly plans to step down from Paramount’s board after the company completes its merger with David Ellison’s Skydance. (Bloomberg)
Jio, the Indian telecom business owned by the billionaire Mukesh Ambani, is said to plan to go public next year, in what could be the country’s biggest I.P.O. (Reuters)
Elections, politics and policy
“The SALT Deduction Fight Is Coming Back — Whoever Wins the Election” (WSJ)
Canada plans to cut emissions by oil and gas companies significantly by 2030, angering both industry leaders and environmentalists who say the plan doesn’t go far enough. (NYT)
Best of the rest
Murray McCory, the founder of JanSport whose lightweight backpack revolutionized how American schoolchildren carried their books, died on Oct. 7. He was 80. (NYT)
How Kareem Rahma, the creator of the hit video series “Subway Takes,” went from moderately successful comedian to interviewing Vice President Kamala Harris. (NYT)
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The post What to Expect on Election Day appeared first on New York Times.
