Almost the entire United States faced drought conditions during the last week of October.
Only Alaska and Kentucky did not have at least moderate drought conditions, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor system.
The past four months were consistently warmer than normal over a wide swath of the country, said Rich Tinker, a drought specialist with the National Weather Service. But in June, while roughly a quarter of the country was dry to some degree, he said, now 87 percent of the nation is.
“Drought in many parts of the country and the world is becoming more frequent, longer and more severe,” said Erica Fleishman, director of the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute and a professor at Oregon State University.
Dry conditions over the past few months led New York City on Saturday to urge residents to start conserving “every drop possible.”
Last month was the driest October since record keeping began in 1869, according to the city, which issued a drought watch for the 9.8 million people who rely on the city’s water supply. A watch encourages voluntary water conservation and ensures city agencies are ready with water conservation plans. The last time a watch was issued was in 2001.
Rohit T. Aggarwala, the city’s chief climate officer and commissioner of the Department of Environmental Protection, noted that the problem is one of quantity, not quality. The city’s upstate reservoirs are below two-thirds full, and they are normally more than three-quarters full in the fall. But, he said, the water is completely safe to drink.
Even after Hurricane Helene dropped huge amounts of destructive rain across the Southeast, the region is experiencing drought. Not much rain has fallen since the storm and warmer temperatures mean higher evaporation rates and drier soils.
Drought doesn’t just come from a lack of precipitation like rain or snow. Drought conditions are driven by abnormally high temperatures that can quickly suck moisture from the atmosphere and the ground.
Even if the total amount of precipitation stays the same or increases a bit, drought can occur. That is especially true as rain events get more episodic, with heavier deluges over a smaller number of events. When all the water comes at once, it’s more difficult for soil to soak it up or for water storage to contain it.
While scientists don’t yet know the exact role climate change played in the current drought, it is notable for how widespread it is, said Benjamin Cook, a climate scientist at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies.
“Oftentimes we get regional droughts concentrated in the Southwest or Texas, but to have nearly the entire country dry or experiencing drought conditions is pretty rare,” Dr. Cook said.
Things could change if La Niña conditions, climate variability originating in the tropical Pacific, begin as predicted this fall or winter. This natural transition could worsen drought conditions across the southern half of the country. But in the Northeast, Dr. Cook said, it’s a tossup whether the coming months will continue to be warm and dry, or if a lot of rain and snow will fall.
“With precipitation on the uptick and temperatures, because of the time of year, heading downward, it does look like we’re going to be in a good trajectory,” Mr. Tinker said. “But it’s been pretty dry and warm for quite a while, so we won’t pop out immediately.”
In New York City, Mayor Eric Adams encouraged residents to water their lawns less frequently and not let the water run when they brush their teeth. The city offered other tips in a news release, including not flushing the toilet unnecessarily, taking shorter showers and fixing leaks.
“In general climate change is making all weather patterns more extreme,” said Dr. Aggarwala. While the Northeast is likely to get wetter, “we’re also at a great likelihood of shorter, more extreme droughts like the one we may be in right now,” he said.
While personal actions matter, Dr. Fleishman said, larger-scale adaptations around infrastructure, agriculture and water policy have greater effects on water use. In the West, for example, municipalities are creating financial incentives for people to minimize residential water use by buying lower-flow appliances or replacing landscaping with drought-resistant coverage.
Farmers can also adapt their agricultural practices by growing fruits and vegetables that require less water or covering their irrigation canals to minimize evaporation.
“Having a wet year doesn’t mean drought is over,” Dr. Fleishman said. “It’s important to think about the longer-term trends in water supply and demand even when there’s plenty to go around.”
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