After two years and a multibillion-dollar barrage of political attack ads, the fight for Senate control is down to a handful of races, with Republicans holding a clear edge but Democrats maintaining a narrow path to retaining their majority if events break their way.
As the final days of an intensely polarizing campaign season play out, the Senate focus is on seats held by Democrats in Montana, Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, and on Republican seats in Texas and Nebraska
The outcome will help determine how much power the next president can wield, given the Senate’s crucial role in approving cabinet and judicial nominations and in setting — or thwarting — the legislative agenda.
Republicans have already all but claimed West Virginia, where the popular governor, Jim Justice, is their candidate for a seat left open by the retirement of Senator Joe Manchin III, a onetime Democrat who changed his affiliation to independent this year. That means the G.O.P. needs a net gain of just one more to flip the current 51 to 49 Democratic majority.
The top Republican target has been in Montana, a state that former President Donald J. Trump is expected to carry easily. Senator Jon Tester, a Democrat who has served three terms there, has trailed consistently in most polls against Tim Sheehy, a Republican and wealthy businessman. But other embattled Democrats have maintained slim polling leads that have tightened in the latest surveys.
If the party fails to retake the chamber, it would mark the third consecutive election cycle that Senate Republicans have come up short. They are confident they will get over the hump this time.
“I believe we will take the majority,” said Senator John Barrasso of Wyoming, a member of the Republican leadership who is on the ballot himself and has campaigned in 11 states with G.O.P. hopefuls. “The next president’s agenda runs through the United States Senate, and Republicans will control the Senate.”
Democrats note that all of their endangered Senate candidates have been outperforming the party’s presidential ticket in their states, making them optimistic that they can offset Mr. Trump’s strength in red states such as Ohio and Montana and sweep the swing states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. They also have long-shot hopes of defeating the Republican firebrand Ted Cruz in Texas, and of benefiting from an upset defeat of Senator Deb Fischer of Nebraska, who is facing an unexpectedly steep challenge from an independent opponent.
“A year and a half ago, no one thought we would have a shot,” Senator Chuck Schumer, Democrat of New York and the majority leader, said in a statement. “Now the race to keep the majority in the Senate is neck and neck and we’re cautiously optimistic about our chances.”
While all the races have had their distinctive issues, they have also been run along the contours of the broader national debate. Democrats have emphasized abortion rights, their legislative accomplishments such as a major infrastructure bill and a relatively drama-free approach to governing, while portraying Republicans as extreme enablers of a right-wing power grab. Republicans have hit Democrats on inflation, the flood of unauthorized migrants entering the country through the southern border and cultural hot-button issues such as transgender rights, accusing them of being in thrall to an ultraliberal agenda.
It has added up to a series of very close contests, with Mr. Tester and Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio, both originally elected in the Senate class of 2006, in the most jeopardy given that Mr. Trump has carried their states twice. Republicans point to a proven record of their Senate candidates winning in states carried by Mr. Trump in 2016 and 2020 as ticket splitting has diminished.
In Montana, Mr. Tester is trying to beat those odds by relying on a strong get-out-the-vote effort, his long history in the state and the federal dollars he has delivered. He characterizes Mr. Sheehy, who moved to Montana in 2014, as one of the rich newcomers who have driven up housing prices, making homes unaffordable for average Montanans.
“It shouldn’t be a very close race, but it is going to be a very close race,” Mr. Tester told supporters at one of his campaign-ending rallies as he urged them to get supporters to the polls.
Mr. Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL and political neophyte whose honesty has been questioned because of conflicting accounts of how he got a gunshot wound in his right forearm, has hit Mr. Tester for being a crucial vote in Washington for the Democratic agenda. He has been outspent by Mr. Tester but Democratic strategists worry that Mr. Tester’s time has run out.
In Ohio, Mr. Brown faces similar headwinds but appears to be faring better against Bernie Moreno, a wealthy former car dealer who won a contested Republican primary. Mr. Brown has a long populist record and strong ties to labor. A group backing him ran ads showing that he was able to work with Mr. Trump, who signed an anti-fentanyl measure Mr. Brown wrote. Mr. Moreno faltered with a comment questioning why women over age 50 would care about abortion rights. Like other Republican Senate candidates, Mr. Moreno has also focused on transgender issues, arguing that Mr. Brown and fellow Democrats are pressing to allow men to compete in women’s sports.
In Wisconsin, Senator Tammy Baldwin, a two-term Democrat, is looking to fend off what has become an increasingly competitive challenge from Eric Hovde, a Republican banking executive. Ms. Baldwin, a soft-spoken progressive, won re-election in 2018 in part by carrying reliably conservative-leaning, rural swathes of Wisconsin by double digits. She is counting on those same voters rallying to her side again this year, but she has not previously run with Mr. Trump on the ballot.
Pennsylvania’s race pits Senator Bob Casey, another Democrat first elected in 2006, against the former hedge fund executive David McCormick in a state that is also ground zero for the presidential race. Mr. Casey, whose father was the state’s governor, has sought to emphasize his independence by noting that he had broken with the Biden administration on oil and gas drilling. He also ran ads saying his opponent actually resides in Connecticut. Mr. McCormick, who owns a home in Pittsburgh, has portrayed his opponent as someone who would vote in lock step with Democrats.
In Michigan, two candidates with national security credentials have squared off for the open seat being vacated by Senator Debbie Stabenow, a Democrat. Representative Elissa Slotkin, a Democrat and former C.I.A. analyst, is facing former Representative Mike Rogers, a Republican who was the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee. The two have battled over the economy and abortion rights in a race that polls indicate slightly favors Ms. Slotkin.
Democrats say they are also optimistic about their Senate chances in Nevada and Arizona, where Senator Jacky Rosen and Representative Ruben Gallego, respectively, have led in polls. Republicans had been bullish about picking up a Senate seat in deep-blue Maryland after Larry Hogan, a popular former two-term Republican governor, jumped into the race. But Angela Alsobrooks, a Democrat and the Prince George’s County executive, now appears poised to win and become Maryland’s first Black senator.
“Our strength is driven from the fact that we have better candidates, ran more effective campaigns, and are on the right side of the issues voters care most about,” said David Bergstein, a spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
Democrats also see a chance of picking off Mr. Cruz in Texas, with Representative Colin Allred, a former professional football player, and Mr. Cruz fighting over abortion rights and border policies. But Republicans say they expect Mr. Cruz to survive another election scare.
Perhaps the most surprising race of the cycle has been in Nebraska, where Ms. Fischer is in a race for her political life against independent Dan Osborn, a former mechanic and labor leader with working-class appeal.
In his closing argument, Mr. Osborn has pitched himself as the candidate of change and said he is more closely aligned with Mr. Trump than Ms. Fischer is. He has said he would not caucus with either party. Republicans say that Ms. Fischer was slow in responding to the threat but that she has now effectively fought back and should prevail.
“Republicans are confident we are going to retake the Senate majority,” said Mike Berg, communications director for the National Republican Senatorial Committee. “Right now we are competitive in battlegrounds across the country and will run through the tape as we try to win as many races as possible.”
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