WASHINGTON — Britain’s new government is looking for nuance in its relationship with China — but Donald Trump doesn’t do nuance.
Since coming to power in July, the Labour Party has announced a review of U.K.-China relations. Ministers are already sounding more open to a constructive relationship with Beijing than their Conservative predecessors were.
But experts in Washington and London are now braced for a possible clash between the transatlantic allies if Trump regains the White House Nov. 5.
On the level of substance, Trump’s approach to China largely resembles that of his Democratic opponents. The key difference, however, is the furious public backlash that inevitably comes with displeasing the larger-than-life entrepreneur.
“If he has a particular objective, and it doesn’t line up neatly with yours, you know from the get-go you’re not going to win,” said one former Downing Street aide who dealt with Trump under ex-Prime Minister Theresa May. The aide, like others in this story, spoke on condition of anonymity to be candid about Trump.
Nadia Schadlow, a former deputy national security adviser for strategy under Trump, warned that Britain’s taking a different tack from Trump on China “could have a negative ripple effect across different aspects of the relationship.”
Whether Trump or his Democratic opponent Kamala Harris wins the presidential election next month, both will expect “solidarity” in their battle with Beijing, said Kerry Brown, a professor of Chinese Studies at King’s College London.
“The issue is, it’s predictable pressure under Harris,” he said, “but unpredictable pressure under Trump.”
Not soft, honest
Labour insists its approach to China remains robust. But the hawks are still spooked.
U.K. Foreign Secretary David Lammy traveled to Beijing last month promising to “adopt a more consistent strategy” toward the globe’s second economic giant, compared with his Conservative predecessors. The Tories initially sought closer ties with the Chinese after coming to power in 2010, but later became far more hawkish — while tying themselves in knots over the level of “threat” to attribute to Beijing.
Labour has launched a fresh review of the China-U.K. relationship, insisting it wants more pragmatic and regular engagement on global security issues like climate, trade and AI, while also voicing areas of disagreement.
Aides stress that Lammy raised human-rights issues and Chinese sanctions against British MPs during his October visit, arguing he did more than his predecessors to voice U.K. complaints.
Others in the government sound even more willing to consider closer ties. Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds told POLITICO last week he was “open” to reviving a long-frozen trade dialogue with the Chinese, which Conservative leaders mooted but never pursued.
Britain’s top finance minister, Rachel Reeves, is meanwhile said to be planning a business delegation to China in 2025.
A Washington consultant with an eye on the U.K. said Labour is “testing the water” with China, citing the British reluctance to follow allies in slapping tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. That issue is awaiting a decision.
Brown, from King’s College, said Labour wants a more profitable economic arrangement with Beijing while avoiding risks over national security and Chinese goods dumping. Skeptics argue such a gambit is impossible.
“If I was a U.K. citizen I would want to know why the government is considering this shift,” said Schadlow, the former Trump adviser, now a senior fellow at center-right American think tank the Hudson Institute.
“China is still subsidizing its industries and prioritizing policies to disperse its overproduction of goods around the world,” she said. “So what fundamental assumptions is the Keir Starmer government making about how the Chinese Communist Party is different now compared to when the Conservatives were in power?”
She added: “If Donald Trump wins he will be asking the same questions, so of course it’s going to be a point of contention. The more there are differences, the more there will be contentious conversations.”
Poking the beast
Labour aides note that the Democrats’ approach to China mirrors the current U.K. stance, and that Trump himself has made positive remarks about Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Observers in Washington counter that while outgoing President Joe Biden promised a more pragmatic approach to China, he failed to actually change the policies Trump implemented in his first term.
For Britain’s new government, however, the consequences of resisting pressure from Trump could be stark.
Keir Starmer’s administration tasted Trump’s wrath last week, when his campaign lashed out at plans for a delegation of Labour staffers to campaign for Harris. Such exchanges between activists are common, but Trump used the British government as collateral to score a domestic political point, filing a legal complaint for maximum impact.
“Because he’s always following domestic interests, it’s probably fair to call him an unreliable partner,” the former Downing Street aide quoted above said of Trump.
A Republican staffer on Capitol Hill said a Harris administration would be more delicate with allies over disagreements than the Republican hardman. “Trump doesn’t think about the geopolitical impacts of what he does. He thinks about the domestic impact,” the person said.
The D.C. consultant quoted earlier said a Trump White House would seek to keep allies on a tighter leash, restricting their ties with China more than a Harris administration would.
Brown, from King’s College, argued the pressures Trump put on allies during his first stint in office could pale in comparison to his approach if reelected.
“There are going to be more difficult people around him this time,” he said. “The adults in the room have largely exited and it’s going to be a bit anarchic.”
Resisting the orange-skinned order
Those who lament the rising Sino-skepticism in the West will urge Starmer to hold his nerve against pressure from the White House.
Mark Logan, a former Conservative MP who defected to Labour ahead of the last election, and who served as a British diplomat in Shanghai between 2012 and 2016, has long argued that Western efforts to isolate China are driving it into the Russian sphere.
He said Labour should avoid becoming entangled in the “superpower battle” the U.S. believes it is fighting against China, and instead carve its own path. “Lammy and Britain can stand out from the groupthink on China [and] find a way to ensure more stability in international politics by being a conduit between these two beasts,” he said.
Brown noted that the bind for Labour is also economic, with the new government desperate to unlock growth and likely reluctant to choose between access to the biggest market in the world and the country’s vaunted “special relationship” with Washington.
Either way, expect hawks on both sides of the Atlantic to urge Labour to follow the American lead.
“We encourage our allies in the U.K. to stand up to the [Chinese Communist Party’s] unfair market practices, gross human rights violations, and military escalation,” said a spokesperson for the House Select Committee on China in Washington.
“Actively increasing our exposure to the U.K.’s biggest security threat is bad enough,” said Luke de Pulford, the U.K.-based executive director of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China. “Even worse to risk foreign policy detachment from our closest allies and biggest trading partners in the process.”
He added: “The geopolitical significance of the U.K.’s dovish turn will be noticed in Brussels and Washington. Ultimately, it’ll be the national interest which suffers.”
The post Britain’s heading for a showdown with Donald Trump on China appeared first on Politico.
