Donald J. Trump’s presidential campaign has spent more than $9.6 million since Oct. 16 to run this 30-second ad, “Doom Medicare,” on television stations, according to AdImpact. And the campaign has put more than $1 million behind the ad in each of Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Here’s a look at the ad, its accuracy and its major takeaway.
On the Screen
The advertisement opens with a photo of Vice President Kamala Harris in an office, next to the headline “Big Hike in Medicare Premiums,” citing a CNN article from 2021. It cuts to a photo of a white couple, above a 2022 headline from CBS reading, “Inflation Is Slamming U.S. Seniors.” The headline remains onscreen as the ad cuts to footage of Ms. Harris in an interview.
Then, video footage of Ms. Harris in a black sequined gown at an awards dinner in Washington is displayed side by side with footage of two seniors on a couch. The next shot is a close-up of Ms. Harris laughing while giving a speech at that dinner, with the headline “Seniors Struggling and Paying More Tax,” a reference to a USA Today article.
With footage of Ms. Harris in an opulent room holding a wineglass, the caption onscreen reads, “Give Medicare & Social Security to Illegals.” Then the ad displays footage from the border. A shot of an older woman at a sink is accompanied by the caption “Doom Medicare.”
The ad closes with footage of Mr. Trump embracing or shaking hands with seniors, citing a Politico headline, “Trump to GOP: Don’t Touch Medicare or Social Security,” and then footage of him at an official event and of a smiling Black couple.
The Script
Narrator
Under Kamala, there’s been a big hike in Medicare premiums. Social Security benefits don’t go far with Kamala’s inflation slamming seniors. Now, Kamala wants struggling seniors to pay more Social Security taxes while she gives Medicare and Social Security to illegals. That will doom Medicare.
President Trump will make sure no one cuts Medicare or Social Security. Trump lowered Medicare premiums, and he’ll end the tax on Social Security.
DONALD J. TRUMP
I’m Donald J. Trump, and I approve this message.
Accuracy
Ms. Harris has not proposed raising taxes for older Americans, but she has backed raising income taxes on higher-earning Americans.
Her tax plan would raise rates for people who earn more than $400,000 a year. And she also backed President Biden’s budget proposal this year, which suggested raising the cap on the amount of income that is taxable by Social Security. Currently, income above $168,600 is not subject to Social Security taxes.
During her unsuccessful 2020 presidential campaign, Ms. Harris expressed support for allowing undocumented immigrants to have coverage under her universal health care plan. But she never offered a detailed plan for how she might fund such a proposal, and she backed away from that health care proposal as she campaigned this year.
The ad’s claims about Medicare premiums are also misleading. The cost of premiums for Medicare varies widely across plans. The standard monthly premium for Medicare Part B — which covers doctor visits, lab tests and other medical services — increased under both the Trump and Biden administrations.
The national average monthly premium for Medicare Advantage, an alternative to traditional Medicare that is funded by the federal government and offered through private insurance, steadily declined under both administrations.
The average monthly premium for Medicare Part D prescription drug plans increased in the first two years of the Trump administration and decreased in the second two. It increased in the first two years of the Biden administration, and then decreased in 2023 before increasing again in 2024.
Mr. Trump has called for ending taxes on Social Security benefits, part of a number of new tax cuts he has proposed to win support with important constituencies this year. But Mr. Trump appeared to suggest he was open to cutting entitlement programs in a CNBC interview this year, though his campaign said he was speaking only about addressing wasteful government spending
An analysis from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan group, found that Mr. Trump’s tax plans would weaken Social Security’s finances.
The Takeaway
Mr. Trump’s proposal to cut taxes on Social Security benefits would be a boon to retirees and is a blatant play to seniors, a key voting group in every battleground state. Older voters have turned out in greater numbers in past presidential elections than younger ones, and the ad is meant to scare them that Ms. Harris will threaten Medicare and Social Security benefits, something that surveys have shown remain a top concern.
With the Harris campaign arguing that Mr. Trump’s proposals would threaten the health of Medicare and Social Security, this ad effectively pushes back. The images of Ms. Harris try to paint her as out of touch with working-class and middle-class Americans. And as with most things that Mr. Trump touches, it ties the issues back to immigration, which he has tried to keep at the center of his campaign all year.
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