For many in Nebraska, autumn typically involves screaming at the television during Cornhusker football games, but the state’s sudden potential to swing the outcome of the super-close presidential race has given voters here something equally exciting: electoral relevance.
High-profile politicians and their surrogates have been parachuting into Nebraska, which is often derided as flyover country when it comes to elections and beyond. The airwaves are clogged with spirited political advertising. Yards are dotted with red or blue signs. Bulletins in churches are stuffed with opinionated voting guides, and preachers are delivering election thoughts from the pulpit.
Nebraska is one of just two states that split its Electoral College votes. (The other is Maine.) By some calculations in the complicated math of predicting the unpredictable outcome of this neck-and-neck race, the Omaha area’s Second Congressional District — a “blue dot” in an otherwise red state — could deliver a single tiebreaking vote for Vice President Kamala Harris on Election Day, a prospect that has focused attention on the region like never before.
Overall, Nebraska votes reliably conservative, just like the other states stacked in a strip in the center of the country. Omaha generally voted Republican too, until it flipped for Barack Obama in 2008, leading Democrats to nickname the city “Obamaha.” It also voted Democratic in the 2020 presidential race, officially marking it as up for grabs.
Democrats are hoping to maintain that hold this year. Some have nicknamed the city “Kamaha” and have decorated lawns, light poles, T-shirts and cheeks with blue dots.
“There are too many people across the United States who feel like their vote, their voice doesn’t matter,” said Ruth Huebner-Brown, who along with her husband was spray-painting blue dots on white yard signs in their driveway on Saturday and ferrying stacks of them to arriving cars. “And honestly, there’s some truth to that if you live in a completely red or completely blue state.”
“Here,” she said, “your voice actually does matter.”
Last month, allies of former President Donald J. Trump began an effort to return Nebraska to a winner-takes-all electoral voting system, a switch that almost certainly would have given the state’s three votes to the Republican. Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina visited Nebraska to push for the change, and Mr. Trump personally phoned into a meeting with Gov. Jim Pillen to lobby for the change. The effort failed, and Democrats say it backfired, energizing their supporters more than ever.
Last weekend in Omaha brought dueling appearances by the Democratic vice-presidential candidate Tim Walz, making his second stop since August, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Tulsi Gabbard, dispatched by Mr. Trump. The Republican House speaker, Mike Johnson, and Democratic House minority leader, Hakeem Jeffries, also turned up to stump for rival congressional candidates and weigh in on the presidential race.
“This is an incredibly important district and an incredibly important state in terms of the future of the United States of America,” Mr. Jeffries said before heading into a crowded event at Big Mama’s Kitchen, a favorite gathering spot for local Democrats.
Omaha, the biggest city in the state, is the birthplace of Malcolm X and is known for hosting baseball’s College World Series. The congressional district includes 414,000 registered voters who live in interlocking suburban areas as well as a few outlying smaller communities.
The presidential race isn’t the only one up for grabs. Representative Don Bacon, a Republican, is locked in a tight race against his Democratic challenger, Tony Vargas, a state senator who came within 6,000 votes of beating him in 2022. The Senate campaign put on by Dan Osborn, a union leader and independent candidate, has rattled Senator Deb Fischer, a Republican, in a race many had thought was a shoo-in for the incumbent.
The outcome of those races could determine control of Congress, further cementing Omaha as the nation’s smallest, swingiest area. In Omaha, so many political gatherings have been underway that some interested voters are having trouble keeping up.
“Wait, what?” Michael Scott, a onetime congressional candidate, said after he was told Mr. Jeffries was speaking across town. He was taking a break at a gathering of some 1,500 Democrats dressed in blue and being herded to form a giant human blue dot, marveling at what he called the “hoopla” over politics in a state that was reliably Republican during his years anchoring local TV news.
A raft of local races and ballot measures is also firing up voters here, including competing abortion measures, one that would further restrict access and another that would offer protections.
In Omaha, televisions yap with constant campaign ads invoking guns and China and a deadly downtown protest over the killing of George Floyd in 2020. Republican signs with red dots topped by a wisp of Trump-like blond hair have popped up in response to Democratic signs with blue dots.
On Sunday, Hank Kunneman, pastor of Omaha’s Lord of Hosts church, offered his hundreds of cheering congregants a vitriolic sermon comparing liberals to ancient Egyptians who he said were communist, socialist and “known for killing their babies,” and told them God has offered up a “candidate like Moses who can deliver you.”
“God is looking as you go to the voting booth,” he said. “If you want more corruption, you want more evil, you want more insanity, you want communism and Marxism and socialism, then you accept the pursuit from the Left.”
Emotions all around were running high.
Lining up to hear Mr. Walz on Saturday was a teary-eyed, shaky-voiced mom worried about her two transgender children, a Vietnam veteran worried about health care and a retired political operative worried about democracy itself.
The Kennedy event drew an Afghan American man angry at President Biden’s military pullout from his home country as well as a retiree who had knocked on 600 doors for Mr. Trump and feared “the border invasion.” Supporters of Ms. Harris are feeling optimistic about a victory; Republicans here complain they have been outspent by millions.
A candidate forum last weekend drew dozens of people from the city’s increasingly diverse population, a factor that is contributing to its liberal tilt in what is a stubbornly segregated city.
In such a small area at such a pivotal time, no group is being taken for granted.
“We feel seen,” said Dr. Nada Fadul, a member of Omaha’s Sudanese community who at the forum Sunday secured commitments from both Democratic and Republican congressional candidates to offer more support for Sudanese refugees. “I’m hoping this will kind of frame Nebraska for people and help them appreciate its value for the country.”
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