Australia’s east coast is closely watching Tropical Cyclone Alfred, which has been churning and strengthening over the Coral Sea. Although the storm is expected to stay offshore for now, it’s still set to bring gusty winds, rising swells and hazardous surf conditions to Queensland’s heavily populated coastline in the coming days.
Forecasters remain uncertain about Alfred’s path beyond the weekend, but they are at least settled on its name. The storm was originally set to be called Anthony, but at the start of February, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology moved to the next name on its predetermined list, potentially to avoid confusion with Anthony Norman Albanese, the country’s current prime minister.
The bureau routinely avoids using the names of prominent people to designate storms, a spokesperson said.
The cyclone season for the Australian region, which runs from November through the end of April. Cyclones can occur anywhere from the western coastline to the more populous eastern coast.
So far this season, eight tropical cyclones have formed in the region. The first to make landfall was Severe Tropical Cyclone Zelia, which struck northeast of Port Hedland, Western Australia, on February 14, with sustained wind speeds of 121 miles per hour. As Zelia approached, the port experienced damaging winds, but the storm rapidly weakened after landfall, losing its tropical intensity later that day.
Rainfall and flooding caused significant disruptions, prompting evacuations in remote communities. The De Grey River saw record-breaking flooding, whilst in Marble Bar the river peaked at 10.23 meters, around 2 meters higher than the previous record set in 1998. Multiple schools and highways were forced to close, and port trade was temporarily suspended.
Alfred, which formed over the weekend, has gradually intensified, with sustained wind speeds of 109 miles per hour on Thursday, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, which would make it a Category 2 hurricane if it were in the Atlantic Ocean.
Not far from Brisbane, along the Queensland coast, Aurimas Mockus is at sea in the final leg of a nearly 7,500-mile journey that began in California last fall. Mr. Mockus has been rowing alone across the Pacific in a single-seat boat in an effort to bring attention to the conflict in Ukraine.
Days away from the end, he has had to change his path as the storm became “more complex,” he said in a statement this week. “The only good thing is that the hurricane is no longer heading straight towards me but slightly to the side of me.”
For now, the Bureau of Meteorology expects the cyclone to remain well off shore while drifting slowly southward on Thursday, before intensifying further on Friday. Alfred is then expected to move closer to the southeast Queensland coast into the weekend, weakening as it does. However, its approach will bring stronger winds and increased swell, potentially generating large waves. Combined with high tide, this could lead to coastal erosion.
“Four- to five-meter waves are possible over some of these coast’s waters.” said Angus Hines, a meteorologist at the bureau. “If we see these large waves coincide with high tide during the weekend, it could cause inundation of low lying coastal areas and potentially some damage or erosion across exposed coastal locations as well.”
The agency issued marine wind warnings for Thursday and Friday along the Ningaloo, Gascoyne and Geraldton Coasts, as well as hazardous surf warnings for the K’gari and Capricornia coasts, along with Sunshine and Gold Coast waters into the weekend.
Beyond Saturday, there is even more uncertainty in the forecast. Some weather models suggest Alfred will move southeast into the Tasman Sea, avoiding land. Others indicate the system could track closer to the Queensland coast.
On Thursday, the Bureau of Meteorology had growing confidence that Alfred will stay offshore, but uncertainty remains about how close it may come to the southern Queensland coast next week.
“There’s still a lot to go with this system” Mr. Hines said. “It’s got a long life ahead of it, hopefully staying away from the country.”
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