Los Angeles residents are facing another round of intense fire danger as gusty Santa Ana winds are expected to intensify once again starting Monday night. The National Weather Service has warned these winds could lead to “explosive fire growth,” prompting rare, “particularly dangerous situation” red flag warnings for parts of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties.
Key things to know about the forecast
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Winds are expected to pick up again late Monday, a forecast that has prompted some of the strongest warnings the Weather Service has in its arsenal.
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A weather system moving in on Thursday is likely to bring conditions that will help firefighters in their efforts to gain control of the blazes.
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The region remains critically dry and is not expected to see significant rainfall until at least next month.
The Weather Service began using the “particularly dangerous situation” red flag warning in recent years to alert firefighters to types of conditions where fires are more likely to spread, said Todd Hall, a meteorologist at the Weather Service in Los Angeles. The intention had been to use them once every three to five years, he said; two have been issued in the last week.
The latest warnings will be in place from early Tuesday morning until noon on Wednesday, when gusts from 45 to 70 miles an hour are expected to batter the region. While not as severe as those last week, which fueled the destructive Palisades and Eaton fires, these winds still pose a significant threat that large fires may spread quickly.
In addition, across the wider region, longer-term warnings for fire weather from the Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center have been upgraded to “extreme,” the highest classification. In areas such as Ventura Valley and the San Bernardino Mountains, wind gusts exceeding 50 m.p.h. will combine with extremely dry air to create hazardous conditions from Monday to Wednesday. The most intense threat is expected from late Monday into Tuesday.
Forecasters said the weather computer models weren’t fully in agreement, and that was giving them slightly less confidence on how the next couple of days will unfold. There is an outlier chance these winds aren’t as strong as they could be — but there is also an outlier chance they could be stronger.
According to the latest forecast, conditions will worsen across Southern California on Monday night into Tuesday morning, with wind gusts nearing 70 m.p.h. as cooler air combines with offshore winds. A brief lull is anticipated Tuesday afternoon, but strong gusts are expected pick up again later in the day and continue through Wednesday morning.
By Tuesday and Wednesday, winds are expected to shift, with the strongest gusts over the mountains northeast of Santa Clarita, through the Santa Susana Mountains, the western Santa Monica Mountains and along the western Malibu coast. Because of this change in direction, wind warnings have been issued for the Santa Clarita Valley, the western Santa Monica Mountains and the Malibu coast. In the eastern San Gabriel Mountains, gusts could reach up to 70 m.p.h., setting off a high-wind warning.
The winds should ease late this week, but the region will remain critically dry.
The winds starting Monday are the fourth — and last — round in a series of Santa Ana events that began last week and have hampered firefighters’ efforts to control the blazes that destroyed several Los Angeles neighborhoods.
Looking ahead, winds are expected to weaken on Thursday, though strong gusts may still occur, and the very dry conditions that have helped these fires spread will persist.
There is some good news, however. Starting Thursday night, a weather system will move eastward, shifting winds to the northwest on Friday. This will bring cooler, ocean-based winds and clouds to the coast and valleys. According to Mr. Hall, this shift will help boost humidity levels and bring much needed cooler air, which will really help firefighters get ahead.
But Los Angeles, and the vegetation that covers it, is still starved for moisture. Most locations south of Ventura County have recorded only about a quarter-inch of rain or less in the last eight months. The Los Angeles area has received only sprinklings of rain since April. San Diego and Riverside have logged even less.
Mr. Hall said there may be a chance of some rain next week, but it’s unlikely to be a substantial amount. “Our long-range models point toward the first part of February for something more significant,” he said.
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