A dangerous mix of strong winds, unseasonably warm temperatures and parched landscapes has created conditions favorable for wildfires in the southern High Plains and in Southern California this week.
A ‘critical’ risk on Monday
The central and southern Rocky Mountains are set to get strong westerly winds on Monday, driven by a weather system moving through the Plains. Wind gusts reaching 25 miles per hour are possible across southeastern Colorado, the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles, eastern New Mexico and western Texas. Gusts of up to 50 miles per hour are possible in parts of eastern New Mexico and western Texas, where the National Weather Service has issued wind advisories. Low humidity levels are expected in the afternoon, especially across western Texas.
“Western portions of Texas are in exceptional drought,” Frank Pereira, a meteorologist with the Weather Prediction Center, said. “The fact that you’ve got a dry cold front coming through with little to no moisture and strong winds means you’re adding more fuel to the fire.”
Vegetation across the region has already begun to dry out, and forecasters warn that Monday’s weather could parch vegetation even further. In response, the Storm Prediction Center has issued “critical” fire weather warnings for these areas, and has said there is a 70 percent probability of conditions that are ripe for wildfires.
A risk for Southern California, too
In Southern California, it will be dry and clear until at least Thursday, and forecasters expect the infamous Santa Ana winds to develop in the area. The winds are expected to peak between Tuesday and Wednesday, posing a wildfire threat in areas of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties.
Unlike the offshore winds in Southern California that carry moist air off the Pacific Ocean, the Santa Anas generally flow from northeast to southwest, out of the Mojave Desert. The winds push the desert air up over the mountains in the Transverse Ranges and accelerate as they move downslope, howling into the canyons and valleys.
Favorable conditions for fires are expected to begin developing on Monday, and the risk will intensify by midweek. Strengthening winds and unseasonably warm temperatures are likely to combine with dropping humidity levels, creating very dry conditions. According to the Storm Prediction Center, this could lead to “elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions” in portions of the Transverse Ranges, particularly on the ocean-facing southern slopes of Ventura County and western Los Angeles County.
“On New Year’s Day, we could see temperatures in the 70s,” said David Gomberg, a meteorologist with the Weather Service in Oxnard, Calif. “Wednesday and Thursday temperatures could be 75 to 85 degrees. That part is a little unusual. We just haven’t had much rain in Ventura and Los Angeles Counties.”
Rainfall in Southern California this season has been scarce. Since Oct. 1, the National Weather Service’s rain gauge in downtown Los Angeles has recorded a mere 0.16 inches of rain, far below the average of 4 to 5 inches typically expected at the end of the fire season, according to Mr. Gomberg. This puts 2024 among the driest years for the region for the period of October through December, according to records dating back to 1889.
“This warmth, combined with the lack of significant rain, makes the region’s vegetation especially vulnerable to fire,” Mr. Gomberg said. “It’s not uncommon to get Santa Ana winds in the winter time, but what makes this a little unique is it’s going to be a warm event.”
The post Fire-Friendly Weather Predicted for Parts of the High Plains and Southern California appeared first on New York Times.
