PARIS — New French Prime Minister François Bayrou, a devout Catholic, can at least spend Christmas knowing the task of forming his government is over.
But the holiday spirit won’t last long. In fact, with France paralyzed politically and the far right and left just as able to unite to vote his administration out of office as they did the last one earlier this month, the new team looks just as fragile.
That poses huge problems for President Emmanuel Macron, in office until 2027 but increasingly unpopular and presiding over a country that’s beginning to look ungovernable. It’s also a worry for the European Union, whose second-largest economy — one that has traditionally driven the bloc forward — is at a virtual standstill.
The main difficulty is that Bayrou’s government, which he announced on Monday, looks a lot like that of his predecessor, Michel Barnier. It has mostly centrist and conservative lawmakers in key roles, even though the sum of its opposing forces — Marine Le Pen’s far right and a pan-leftwing alliance called the New Popular Front — make up a majority in parliament.
Barnier’s administration lost a no-confidence vote less than three months after being appointed. Based on the first reactions from opposition leaders, there’s no guarantee France’s new management will last any longer.
Olivier Faure, leader of the center-left Socialist Party, described the new government as “a provocation,” with “the hard right in power under the watchful eye of the extreme right.” The president of the far-right National Rally, Jordan Bardella, slammed the new government as ridiculous, saying Bayrou “put together the coalition of failure.”
Financial storm
Bayrou’s mission was never going to be easy. After all, since Barnier’s removal, the political situation hasn’t changed.
First, there’s the bitterly divided state of French politics. Macron’s haphazard decision to call a snap election in the summer led to a hung parliament made up of three nearly equal blocs that oppose each other — making it impossible to build a majority.
Then there’s the need to pass a long-overdue budget for 2025 despite this fragmentation. France is under pressure to cut its massive deficit ― the difference between how much a government spends and how much it brings in ― which this year reached 6.2 percent of the country’s GDP, twice the level permitted under EU rules.
For the role of economy and finance minister Bayrou has chosen a banker, Eric Lombard, who worked for BNP Paribas and directed insurance giant Generali before being nominated to lead the powerful Caisse des dépôts et consignations, the investment arm of the French state. He will work with Minister Amélie de Montchalin, from Macron’s camp, who will specifically be in charge of the budget.
Barnier’s fall also meant the rejection of his 2025 budget, leaving France without a budget law just days before an end-of-year deadline.
The outgoing government passed a stopgap budget, which effectively carries over the 2024 budget to 2025 to prevent a U.S.-style shutdown in January, but does nothing to reduce France’s deficit.
The pressure for Bayrou to rein in France’s deficit comes from financial markets and the European Commission. France is under a so-called excessive deficit procedure in Brussels for overspending by too much last year. Barnier’s plans to save €60 billion per year via tax hikes and spending cuts reassured the Commission, but raised criticism from opposition parties and led to his downfall.
Bayrou has promised to hold a vote on a new budget by mid-February. To do so he will need to find a way to cut France’s deficit without incurring the wrath of opposition parties.
Financial markets have factored in France’s political mess. Earlier this month, hours after Bayrou’s appointment, credit rating agency Moody’s downgraded France’s credit rating, citing “political fragmentation” and predicting that France’s deficit will keep growing next year instead of going down as promised by Barnier.
First test
Bayrou’s first major test will come on Jan. 14, when he delivers his inaugural policy speech to the National Assembly. While French prime ministers are not required to seek a vote of confidence, the leftist France Unbowed movement has vowed to introduce a no-confidence motion if Bayrou does not.
Such a motion would need support from both the center-left Socialist Party and National Rally to pass. The Socialists initially signaled a willingness to cooperate for the sake of stability but have since criticized Bayrou for refusing to compromise on key demands, such as suspending last year’s unpopular pension reform that raised the retirement age from 62 to 64.
The National Rally has indicated it won’t immediately seek to topple the government, preferring to wait for the budget debates. However, Le Pen’s party made similar promises to Barnier before ultimately turning on him, even after securing concessions.
Bayrou may still have options. He has long championed proportional representation, a reform backed by both the National Rally and the left. His party, the MoDem, has also shown openness to windfall taxes on large corporations, a popular opposition demand.
Still, his tenure so far has been marred by missteps and controversy rather than coalition-building. An Ifop poll released Sunday shows him as the most unpopular prime minister at this stage, giving the opposition little reason to support him.
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