The fragile peace between Israel and Hezbollah largely hangs on 10,000 soldiers in the Lebanese Army.
The last time it was tasked with enforcing a cease-fire, it plainly failed.
The current cease-fire, which came into effect on Wednesday, calls for a 60-day truce between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, during which time Israeli forces gradually withdraw from Lebanon, and Hezbollah moves away from Lebanon’s border with Israel.
To ensure Hezbollah’s retreat, the agreement relies heavily upon the Lebanese Army, a national military strained under competing priorities and sectarian complexities that has long proved unable — or unwilling — to rein in Hezbollah.
In a new buffer zone along the border — a strip of land ranging from a few miles to 18 miles wide — the Lebanese Army is responsible for destroying all Hezbollah military infrastructure, confiscating any unauthorized weapons and blocking the transfer or production of arms. United Nations peacekeeping forces will sometimes accompany the Lebanese soldiers in a supporting role. On Wednesday, the army began deploying more soldiers to the region.
But that approach has been tried before — and it did not work.
The Israel-Hezbollah cease-fire that ended the 2006 Lebanon War, known as Resolution 1701, also called on the Lebanese Army to keep Hezbollah away from the border, with U.N. peacekeepers assisting. Years later, Hezbollah emerged even stronger than before, with extensive weaponry, infrastructure and tunnels across the border region.
Yet despite those past failures, the international community is once again banking on the Lebanese Army. In recent months, the United States and other nations revived an effort to train, equip and fund Lebanese forces.
But, analysts say, it is a risky bet.
“We’ve tried this before,” said Hanin Ghaddar, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute studying Hezbollah. The Lebanese Army, she added, “has never, ever confronted Hezbollah. So this would be highly unusual.”
Knowing that history well, Israel does not appear convinced that Lebanon’s army will be able to fulfill its mission.
One of the final sticking points of the cease-fire was Israel’s demand for a side agreement that, if the Lebanese Army fails to ensure that Hezbollah is disarmed, Israel will have U.S. approval to respond with force. Israel plans to monitor Hezbollah’s compliance via aerial surveillance and intelligence operations, an Israeli security official told reporters on Wednesday during a call in which government spokespeople required the official not to be named.
“If Hezbollah breaks the agreement and seeks to arm itself, we will attack,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel said in a televised address. President Biden reiterated that point in his own address on the cease-fire.
The Lebanese Army has long been central to the international strategy for peace in the region. The United States has given the force more than $3 billion since 2006. Saudi Arabia pledged another $3 billion in 2013, though it halted payments three years later. And last month, France helped raise $200 million.
Yet Hezbollah has long surpassed the power of Lebanon’s military, with bigger weapons and more experienced fighters.
Ms. Ghaddar said that the Lebanese government deserved some of the blame. It has been unwilling to give the Lebanese Army a clear mandate to suppress the military wing of Hezbollah, which is also an influential political party, because some governing factions are sympathetic or aligned with the group, she said.
“They are capable of fighting and winning,” Ms. Ghaddar said of the Lebanese Army. “The problem is we need a political decision.”
The Lebanese Army has rarely operated as a traditional military, largely ceding responsibility of securing borders and rarely getting involved in Israel’s wars against Hezbollah. Army officers have said that the diverse force, made up of various sects, would undermine national stability if perceived to be targeting one sectarian group. So Lebanese soldiers have rarely, if ever, searched private homes and stopped cars to search for Hezbollah members and arms in southern Lebanon.
Yet the new cease-fire doubles down on the force.
The agreement gives Lebanese soldiers wide authority to destroy weapon-making facilities and prevent any entry of unauthorized weapons into Lebanon. It calls on them to deploy along all of Lebanon’s borders and to set up roadblocks and checkpoints in the buffer zone between Israel and Hezbollah. And it charges the United States and France with helping the Lebanese Army deploy 10,000 soldiers to that buffer zone.
Today, there are at least 4,000 Lebanese soldiers in the area, according to two senior Lebanese security officials, who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive military matters.
In the White House Rose Garden on Tuesday, Mr. Biden made clear that the United States thought the Lebanese Army was up to the task. “Over the next 60 days, the Lebanese Army and the state security forces will deploy and take control of their own territory once again,” he said. “Hezbollah terrorist infrastructure in southern Lebanon will not be allowed to be rebuilt.”
In a briefing to reporters, White House officials stressed that the new cease-fire has a better chance at lasting peace than the 2006 agreement because the United States would lead a process to review reported violations of the truce — such as a stockpile of weapons in the buffer zone — and make sure the Lebanese forces are responding.
U.N. peacekeeping forces in Lebanon, known as UNIFIL, will also help monitor and report any violations, as they have since 1978. The 10,000 U.N. forces come from 48 countries, including India, Indonesia and Italy, and were also a key part of the 2006 deal, often accompanying the Lebanese Army in the border area. They will play a similar role this time.
“We are supporting the Lebanese Army, because the Lebanese Army will eventually be fully in charge of the situation,” said Andrea Tenenti, UNIFIL’s spokesman. The U.N. forces are armed, but are only authorized to use force in self-defense.
Mohanad Hage Ali, a researcher who studies the conflict at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, said the U.N. forces helped, but the Lebanese Army must lead because they know the territory and are more trusted by locals. “At the end of the day, this is a state job,” he said.
The Lebanese Army has the ability to succeed in the short term, he added, “but the question is the long-term stability of these operations.”
Lebanon is mired in a yearslong financial crisis, which has forced the cash-strapped government to increasingly rely upon the military for domestic security. At the same time, Lebanon’s currency has collapsed, prompting many rank-and-file soldiers to look for second jobs.
“Basically it became more of a part-time job, because it doesn’t really sustain you,” Mr. Hage Ali said. “So any plan going ahead should address that.”
Last year, the United States paid more than 70,000 Lebanese Army personnel $100 a month for six months. This year, Qatar began funding similar $100 monthly payments. Italy has been leading another initiative to better train and equip the troops, which has included providing watch towers from Britain and mine-clearing tools from France.
In October, France organized a conference to raise more support for Lebanon, including its military. In a speech, President Emmanuel Macron of France called on more nations to help.
The Lebanese Army has “a decisive role to play today,” he said, “even more than yesterday.”
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