On the lamp posts in northeast Dublin, campaign posters are stacked one on top of the next, the faces of prominent politicians and newcomers competing for attention ahead of Ireland’s general election on Friday.
But Janice O’Keeffe, 44, who was collecting a cup of coffee on Thursday morning from a cafe on Sean McDermott Street, said she was still undecided. One thing was certain: She was fed up with the establishment.
“They’ve had 100 years to prove themselves and they haven’t done much,” she said of Ireland’s two main political parties, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.
The two parties, both of which are broadly center-right, have run the Republic of Ireland for alternating periods since the founding of the modern Irish state in the early 20th century. At the last general election, in 2020, neither won a big enough majority to govern alone. So, along with the Green Party, they formed a coalition that kept out their main opposition: Sinn Féin, which had won the popular vote for the first time.
As Ireland heads to the polls, many voters have voiced disillusionment with the government, citing issues like the steep cost of living, health care and immigration.
Despite that, the duopoly of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael is expected to hold, partly because neither is willing to enter a coalition with Sinn Féin, a left-wing nationalist party that for decades was ostracized because of its history as the political branch of the Irish Republican Army.
In the last election poll from The Irish Times, Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Sinn Féin were neck-and-neck, with 21 percent, 20 percent and 19 percent, respectively.
Here in northeast inner-city Dublin, locals say the issues facing voters feel particularly acute. There is vast wealth inequality in the district, with pockets of affluence existing alongside deprivation. A boom in commercial development and an influx of well-paid tech workers from multinational firms lured by Ireland’s corporate tax breaks has added to the feeling among some longstanding communities of being left behind.
Then, just over a year ago, the city was left reeling after a knife attack set off a night of rioting and looting. The outburst of violence, which was stoked by anti-immigrant rhetoric and far-right disinformation, shone a spotlight on deeper societal issues that remain largely unresolved.
Surging demand for housing has overwhelmed limited rental stock, exacerbated by a failure by successive governments to invest in public housing. And as the number of new immigrants reached its highest level this year since 2007, a fault line has grown in Irish society and toxic narratives have gained a toehold, experts say.
“There is this real polarization at the moment, and our focus has to be: How do we help these kids growing up here?” said Jonathan Dowling, 38, a youth work leader at Belvedere Youth Club in the north inner-city. “I don’t tell people, ‘Don’t sell drugs,’ or ‘Don’t commit crime’ or ‘Don’t be racist,’” he said. “We create a platform for them to see that there is right, there is wrong and here’s your opportunity, and it’s down to them to make a decision.”
Dean Murray, 26, another youth worker, said there were often negative stereotypes about the area, where he also grew up, but that the community was tight-knit.
“Most people from here love it,” he said. For most of his peers, the biggest issues were the cost of groceries and lack of housing, he said, adding, “I think people just want change from that constant perpetuating cycle of government saying they are going to do things, and then not.”
The range of proposed solutions to Ireland’s issues is reflected by the broad swath of candidates vying for Dublin Central constituency’s four seats. There are the established candidates from the country’s center-right parties, along with Mary Lou McDonald, the leader of Sinn Féin; progressive left candidates; a nationalist anti-immigration candidate; and even Gerry Hutch, a man prosecutors have described in court as the head of a crime family.
On Wednesday, Gary Gannon, a center-left Social Democrat, was knocking on doors in the fading evening light in a final push for votes. He has represented this Dublin constituency since 2020. Concerns about housing have been a major theme for constituents, he said, but he felt the emphasis on immigration concerns had lessened since last year.
“What breaks down fear is connection,” he said. “The far-right agitators who have built their name on immigration, people realized once they stopped talking about immigration, they started talking about lessening reproductive rights, and attacks on LGBT people, and people realized that doesn’t resonate with them.”
He said the city needs “strong legislators,” not just someone to give voice to grievances. “But it can be a bit of a harder sell to say, ‘I’m not just going to speak to your anger, I am going to work to resolve it,’ because that becomes a long process,” he acknowledged.
A short walk away in the East Wall neighborhood, Malachy Steenson, a right-wing nationalist candidate running on an anti-immigration platform, offered a decidedly different vision as he knocked on doors. Mr. Steenson said traditional media had overlooked the importance of immigration to voters in neighborhoods like East Wall, adding, “Our obligation is to our own.”
Adrienne McGuinness, 55, and Dawn Everard, 54, were canvassing for him and said they became politically active two years ago in frustration over the state housing asylum seekers.
“We pay taxes, we all work, and then everything feels like it’s getting dumped on us,” Ms. Everard said. Ms. Guinness added, “We definitely are forgotten.”
Some right-wing nationalist and anti-immigration candidates may win seats, said Gail McElroy, a professor of politics at Trinity College Dublin. “It will be a big issue in certain local constituencies where there are plans to provide accommodation for large numbers of asylum seekers,” she said, adding, “The mainstream parties are kind of avoiding it,” focusing attention instead on the economy.
Sinn Féin is hoping that those disillusioned with the status quo may turn to them. After a surge in support in 2020, the party had been expected to perform well at this election, but its polling numbers have sagged during the second half of this year, thanks in part to internal party scandals.
On Thursday, Ms. McDonald, the party’s leader, appealed to people who might have traditionally steered away from the party to “lend” their support in order to challenge the two main parties.
“If you want a change of government, vote for Sinn Féin,” she said, standing in front of government buildings. “Lend us your vote for this election.”
Despite the disillusionment with establishment parties, the country’s unique form of proportional representation that uses ranked voting insulates it from the wild swings seen in other democracies, said Professor McElroy. As a result, she said, “The system rewards those with less extreme positions.”
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