BUCHAREST — Was the shock victory of nationalist Călin Georgescu in the first round of Romania’s presidential election last Sunday an anomaly, or is the EU and NATO country experiencing a deeper tilt to the far right?
That is the looming question as Romanians head back to the polls this weekend to elect their parliament.
Georgescu, an admirer of Russian President Vladimir Putin, was propelled to victory out of obscurity by a remarkably successful TikTok campaign that has raised suspicions of covert interference and triggered warnings by rival politicians of Russian influence.
While those catchy videos were an unexpected vote-winner, Georgescu’s main campaign themes had a classic populist appeal: He cited traditional Christian values, vowed to stand up for people excluded economically, and said he would make Romania more self-sufficient in sectors such as food and energy.
Adrian Axinia, vice-president of the far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) and a member of the European Parliament, said those issues would come to the fore in the parliamentary election on Sunday. Georgescu was a member of AUR before standing as an independent.
“People seem to be going with the sovereigntist option, and they showed that they don’t accept being treated as second-tier citizens in Europe anymore,” Axinia said.
AUR has surged to the top of a poll ahead of the parliamentary election on Sunday. It is expected to win just over 22 percent, ahead of the establishment center-left Social Democrat Party (PSD) on just over 21 percent, according to a survey conducted over the past few days by AtlasIntel, a small polling company.
Two other far-right parties, SOS Romania, led by MEP Diana Șoșoacă, and the Party of Young People, founded last year by a former AUR member, are polling just under the 5 percent threshold required to obtain parliamentary seats, but could well make it over the line.
The party that wins the most votes in Sunday’s election is expected to nominate the next prime minister. If no party wins more than half of the total votes, a coalition will be required.
If AUR were to win, it could look to form a minority government with other far-right parties should they cross the threshold. Mainstream parties, which are seeing their voter bases shrink as Romanians reject the establishment, could be reluctant to create an alliance with the far right.
“The likelihood of Romania having a minority government after this election is extremely high,” said Andrei Roman, chief executive of AtlasIntel.
Romania’s Constitutional Court banned Șoșoacă from running for president in October, saying her antisemitic, pro-Russia views would threaten the country’s position in the EU and NATO.
She now insists that her party will profit from the same “anti-globalist and pro-sovereignty” movement that swept Georgescu to power.
“The SOS Romania Party that I lead will take its revenge in the parliamentary elections of Dec. 1 and will obtain the parliamentary majority, and I will become prime minister,” she said.
This weekend, much will depend on whether Romanians take seriously the warnings of the more mainstream political parties — and indeed of the national authorities — that the first round of the presidential vote was hijacked.
Reformist presidential hopeful Elena Lasconi, who faces Georgescu in a Dec. 8 runoff, is warning Romanians that they face an “existential fight” for their democracy, and that Georgescu and the far right could push the country back toward Russia and the dark days of dictatorship.
Romania’s national authorities are also claiming that the election was subject to a cyberattack and are strongly suggesting Russian involvement. In an unprecedented move, the Constitutional Court on Thursday ordered a vote recount.
To complicate matters even further, judges are meeting again Friday to decide whether they should nullify the first presidential round altogether over claims that votes for a candidate who dropped out a week before the election were illegally transferred to Lasconi.
Lasconi portrayed the court’s recount decision as a desperate attempt by the mainstream parties to fight back. Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu of PSD, who was seen as the favorite to become the next president but didn’t make the runoff, rejected that accusation, calling it manipulation.
Radu Magdin, a Romanian political analyst, said the decision over whether to overrule last Sunday’s vote could fan greater political engagement by both Lasconi’s liberals and far-right parties.
PM Ciolacu pitched his socialist party as a force for stability amid the uncertainty that has gripped Romania since Georgescu’s win.
“These are the most important parliamentary elections in 35 years,” he said in a TV interview on Thursday night. “Everything has become very fragile.”
Hanne Cokelaere and Ketrin Jochecová contributed reporting
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