Donald J. Trump’s decision to give Robert F. Kennedy Jr. a cabinet post appeared to fulfill his promise to Mr. Kennedy to find him a spot in his administration.
Mr. Trump may well have overpaid in the deal.
Pre-election polling was inconclusive about whether Mr. Kennedy’s exit from the race gave a more significant advantage to Mr. Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris. A post-election analysis of results offered few clues to answer that question.
And though the electoral value of Mr. Kennedy’s endorsement may be inconclusive, it always had more of a symbolic than a real-world appeal to Mr. Trump. Winning the backing of Mr. Kennedy — an anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist and the scion of Democratic royalty — supplied Mr. Trump not necessarily with votes in key swing states but with a fuzzier owning-the-libs morale boost and the kind of name-brand approval he often craves.
Mr. Trump selected Mr. Kennedy as the next secretary of health and human services, the type of cabinet post typically reserved for political allies who deliver a battleground state or a crucial coalition of voters. Mr. Kennedy has said that “there is no vaccine that is, you know, safe and effective,” a view at odds with most of the country regarding childhood vaccinations. He ran a 16-month campaign for president and dropped out in August as his troubled independent bid was running out of money.
In his first administration, Mr. Trump basked in his ability to stock his cabinet with “killers,” as he referred to them — corporate executives, Wall Street financiers and four-star generals, all of whom reported to Mr. Trump and, to remain in his good graces, often lavished him with praise.
As Mr. Trump builds out a second administration, Mr. Kennedy is the clearest example of that history repeating itself.
“This is a form of validation for Trump,” said Stephanie Grisham, a former Trump press secretary who is now a Trump critic. “He loves it when any recognizable name will support him.”
Ms. Grisham said she doubted Mr. Trump would have promised such a high-profile job had he known he would sweep the seven battleground states on Nov. 5. She added that at least a small inspiration in persuading Mr. Kennedy to join his team was probably to troll Democrats.
Mr. Trump has long been intrigued by the Kennedy political dynasty and interested in incorporating the Kennedy brand into his movement. He repeatedly asked aides and advisers this year about the possibility of selecting Mr. Kennedy as his running mate, saying that he liked the sound of “Trump-Kennedy,” even though Mr. Trump had been brutally critical of him during much of the campaign.
As president, he often told visitors that he sat at the same Oval Office desk that John F. Kennedy, Mr. Kennedy’s uncle, had, and he regularly invoked the former president at White House events, including during announcements of new tax policies and the ceremonial pardoning of a Thanksgiving turkey.
In July, Mr. Trump tried to coax support from Mr. Kennedy during a phone call. “I would love you to do something — and I think it’ll be so good for you and so big for you,” Mr. Trump said, in an apparent reference to a second term. “And we’re going to win.”
Mr. Kennedy dropped out the next month and later said he had been promised a top job in the administration. “The key that, I think, President Trump has promised me is control of the public health agencies, which are H.H.S. and its subagencies,” Mr. Kennedy told supporters during an online organizing call.
At an event in Charlotte, N.C., on Sept. 6, Mr. Trump laid out part of his rationale for seeking Mr. Kennedy’s support, saying he believed that the endorsement would result in more votes for the Republican ticket.
“It means that all of those who love Bobby, and there’s a lot of them, and all that he stands for, especially regarding the health and well-being of us, can vote — they vote for me now,” Mr. Trump told the crowd. “So all of the Bobby people are going to vote for me.”
Pre-election polls were far less conclusive.
In a battleground-state poll from The New York Times and Siena College just before Mr. Kennedy left the race, he received support from about 5 percent of voters. The outcomes in those states did not change whether Mr. Kennedy was on the ballot or not, the survey showed.
Mr. Kennedy’s supporters mostly broke for Mr. Trump when forced to choose between the Republican and Democratic nominees. But overall, Kennedy voters were among the least likely to show up to the polls. His supporters were less likely to have voted in 2020 and less likely to say they planned to vote in 2024.
Election results show that Mr. Kennedy received at least 3 percent of the vote in fewer than two dozen counties nationwide. Nearly all of those were solidly Democratic counties in Vermont, while five were solidly Republican counties in Montana.
On the campaign trail, Mr. Trump repeatedly told crowds that he did not want Mr. Kennedy, who was trained as an environmental lawyer, anywhere near oil and gas regulations. Instead, Mr. Trump said he was happy to have Mr. Kennedy involved in health policy.
“I’m going to let him go wild on health,” Mr. Trump said at a rally at Madison Square Garden in the final week of the campaign. “I’m going to let him go wild on the foods. I’m going to let him go wild on the medicines.”
But Mr. Trump was just as likely to boast to supporters that he had won over a member of the Kennedy family. He repeatedly told rally crowds that it was “an honor” to have Mr. Kennedy’s support.
On Sept. 7, in Wisconsin, he asked his crowd, “Isn’t it great to have a Kennedy with us?” In Mr. Kennedy, Mr. Trump claimed to have the support from “the dominant Kennedy from the last 25 years.”
Two weeks later, Mr. Trump introduced Mr. Kennedy to a crowd in Michigan as “a big part of what we’re doing.” Extending his hands with seeming glee, he added, “Getting a Kennedy to endorse a Trump Republican, that was a big deal, right?”
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