Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav begged for relief from regulators last summer – “We just need an opportunity for deregulation, so companies can consolidate and do what we need to do to be even better,” he said at Sun Valley in July, expressing the frustration in corner offices across industries.
As the presidential election loomed, Zaslav didn’t indicate a preference for Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, just a world where M&A is easier.
Fast forward. The election is here, and it is still not obvious which of the two candidates will look more kindly on dealmaking, especially in media.
“Generally, Democrats will be more restrictive on deals. But I think there are industry differentials,” says a longtime Wall Streeter who follows entertainment.
Watch on Deadline
“We’re not sure, because it is obvious that a Harris administration might be more focused on the consumer and [wary of] consolidation, but Trump clearly has a weird thing with the media companies,” agrees an exec at a Washington D.C. nonprofit.
The Biden-Harris administration unleashed an aggressive DOJ and an even more proactive Federal Trade Commission led by Lina Khan that’s been quashing deals across industries from publishing to pharma to fashion. Her team is applying more metrics, going beyond traditional evaluations of consumer price impact to look broadly at how jobs and the overall sector would be affected.
The DOJ has been actively policing big tech in particular and recently sued to separate Ticketmaster and Live Nation.
It’s expensive to fight regulators even if they sometimes lose in court (Microsoft/Activision) and it creates business uncertainty, so the climate can stifle deals even before they start, execs lament.
Creating uncertainty — neither Harris nor Trump have made their intentions clear.
“Last time, in 2016, the Republican Party had a party plank on antitrust, and it doesn’t this time. There’s been scant mention of it even though it’s obviously increased in visibility over the past eight years. It’s hard to know what to expect,” said the nonprofit chief. “Trump picked Makan Delrahim [as the DOJ’s top antitrust enforcer] and Joe Simons [as FTC head], both established antitrust lawyers. Would he do the same thing again? Harris hasn’t really shown her hand fully.”
Trump’s DOJ is well known, however, for suing (unsuccessfully) to block AT&T’s acquisition of CNN parent Time Warner in 2017.
“In the first Trump Administration, he tended to get involved in combinations that bothered him, like the AT&T and Time Warner deal, which took longer than it would have to go through. Clearly, he has a dislike for mainstream media, so I’m not sure how the landscape will be more favorable for them” if Trump wins, says another Wall Streeter. “Would he want to see the guys that own CBS, MSNBC get stronger? Let ABC get stronger?”
CBS is part of Paramount Global, which is in the process of selling itself to David Ellison’s Skydance. David Ellison, a Democratic donor, is the son of Trump supporter and Oracle co-founder-CEO Larry Ellison, who is a big backer of the merger. WBD is retrenching and paying down debt, Comcast spinning out its cable networks, Lionsgate splitting into two companies. More consolidation is expected including, analysts predict, mergers of streaming services
Meanwhile. Candidate Trump just sued CBS News for $10 billion over a 60 Minutes interview with Kamala Harris. In May, he sued ABC News over comments by anchor George Stephanopoulos during an interview. He pressed NBC for “equal time” after Harris appeared on SNL and has railed against MSNBC. Last year, a judge dismissed a Trump defamation suit against CNN.
The former president said at a rally yesterday that he wouldn’t mind if someone tried to shoot through the media riser to assassinate him. “All we have really over here is the fake news, right? And to get me, somebody would have to shoot through the fake news.
“And I don’t mind that so much,” Trump said. “I don’t mind. I don’t mind,” as the audience roared with laughter.
“I think Trump would be more lenient towards antitrust, more flexible,” says one media executive, but “he does have vendettas.”
In the broader antitrust landscape, one wildcard is a populist strain in the GOP, including Trump’s VP pick J.D. Vance, who, surprisingly, likes Lina Khan, calling her one of the current administration’s only decent picks.
“I was shocked when he said that. And there are other Republicans like Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) and a populist wing of party that is in line with the populist progressives on some things. But we haven’t really seen how it would wash out in government appointments. It seems like the possible range of potential outcomes are much wider if a Republican gets elected than there has been historically,” said the nonprofit exec.
Most think Khan is toast in a Trump administration. Big Democratic donors have insisted a Harris presidency replace her.
“It’s so speculative,” the analyst said. “You don’t know who will be leading the policies, the point of view. You have to see who is put in, what happens at the DOJ or FTC.”
The post Few Assurances For Media Giants In Election Wins By Either Trump Or Harris appeared first on Deadline.
