A series of wind events will result in dangerous conditions throughout California that will have parts of the state on edge anticipating the potential for wildfires.
Southern California was already experiencing strong winds on Monday, and there is increasing confidence among forecasters that another wind event in the middle of the week will be stronger and more widespread. Monday’s strong winds could make fire conditions more likely ahead of Wednesday, and forecasters warned that the combination of strong winds and low humidity would help any fires grow rapidly in size and intensity.
Here’s what to expect and when across California.
Monday
The first Santa Ana wind event was ongoing across parts of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, with moderate-strength winds gusting up to 70 miles per hour in the mountains and up to 50 m.p.h. in the valleys. These strong winds will combine with dry fuel to create widespread critical weather conditions in this region.
“If a fire starts, there will likely be rapid fire growth,” forecasters with the National Weather Service in Los Angeles warned on Monday morning.
Farther north, strong winds on Monday in the San Francisco Bay Area were likely to prime fuels for critical fire weather conditions Tuesday through Thursday, forecasters there said.
Although recent rainfall may help alleviate fire weather concerns in the short term, the dry winds will help parch the fuels in advance of a second offshore wind event beginning Tuesday evening.
Tuesday
The winds are expected to begin to increase across the Bay Area Tuesday evening, and forecasters in the region have announced a red flag warning for their area, including San Francisco, which means critical fire conditions are likely to begin at 11 a.m. local time on Tuesday and run through Thursday.
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday into Wednesday in the Sacramento Valley, the Delta and the coastal foothills because of the low daytime and overnight humidity.
Given the recent cooler temperatures and moisture, forecasters in Sacramento wondered if the available fuels would be dry enough to help a fire spread in their region. But with winds picking up in the Sacramento area on Tuesday, any potential fuels may dry out ahead of a windier Wednesday.
There should be a short respite between big wind events on Tuesday for places like Los Angeles. Red flag warnings for the midweek event are likely to be issued for the Los Angeles region after the first Santa Ana event is over on Monday.
Wednesday
Another Santa Ana wind event — this one potentially stronger, longer lasting and more widespread — is on track for Wednesday and Thursday in Southern California. It is very likely that gusts of 60 m.p.h. will extend out of the mountains into some valleys and even coastal locations like Malibu, with the worst winds expected from Wednesday morning into Wednesday night.
Forecasters in Los Angeles warned that this was likely be a high-end red flag warning event, and said that some of the worst wildfire weather conditions, what the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center calls “sustained critical,” may last for several hours in portions of the region.
Elevated fire weather conditions, which are slightly less severe, are also possible in the Sacramento area on Wednesday.
In the Bay Area, the potential wildfire behavior will depend on how much the earlier winds dry out the fuel across region. Weather forecast models are showing the potential for a moderate-to-strong offshore flow event in the middle of the week, forecasters in the Bay Area said Monday morning.
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