Could the presidential election’s battleground states ultimately be as uncompetitive as the just-wrapped World Series?
That’s the question prompted by a fresh slate of Atlas Intel swing-state surveys that shows Donald Trump on track for 287 electoral votes if the projections translate into reality Tuesday.
And key to the former president’s performance in these polls is black voters backing Trump to a degree other surveys of the race aren’t showing, suggesting a potential crack in a historic Democratic coalition dating back more than half a century.
With the exception of a blink-and-you’ll-miss-it 0.2-point lead for Kamala Harris in Wisconsin, where she has 49% to 48.8% for Trump, the GOP nominee is up in the swing states that’ll decide the election.
Among 1,005 likely Arizona voters polled, the man from Mar-a-Lago leads the veep 50.8% to 45.9%. He’s ahead of Harris by nearly 7 points with men, more than 4 points with women and almost 2 points with independents.
Trump takes more than 5% of Biden 2020 voters, while fewer than 3% of Trump voters last cycle are moving to Harris.
The former president also takes 26% of the black vote in the state, along with more than 45% of Hispanics.
Among 1,212 Georgia likely voters polled, Trump leads 48.8% to 47.2%, positioning the former president to flip another state Biden won in 2020.
People who don’t remember their 2020 vote or didn’t vote at all are key here, as Trump has a 20-point advantage with them. He takes more than 25% of the black vote. He also has nearly 50% of Asians, with the remainder split largely between Harris and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, who has more than 18% support from them.
Among 1,136 likely Michigan voters, Trump has a narrow lead: 49.2% to 48.3%, with spoiler Stein taking 1.7% in the Wolverine State.
Trump’s strength with black voters is notable in this survey, with the former president at 39.9% and Harris at 54%. One reason this may be happening: He’s taking 8% of Biden 2020 voters, while Harris is only converting 4.1% of Trump supporters from last cycle.
Nevada also appears to be on track for Trump, based on this sample of 845 likely voters, who pick the GOP nominee 50.5% to 46.9%.
As with the other states, Trump’s black support (33.7%) is noteworthy. He also leads with Hispanics, 49.7% to 48.2%, and independents, 50.1% to 42.7%. And he’s converting 8.9% of Biden 2020 voters while retaining 97.2% of those who voted for him four years ago.
In North Carolina, where 1,373 likely voters were polled, Trump has majority support: 50.7% to 46.7% for Harris, despite a smaller share of black voters backing him (19.7%) than in other states in the sample.
Trump is up here with independents, 50.2% to 44.1%, as the gender gap plays out in his favor. He has a more than 15-point lead with men; he’s down by 7 points with women.
Among 1,738 likely Pennsylvania voters, Trump also has the slight edge: 48.5% to 47.4%, a spread consistent with the last two nail-biter outcomes in the Keystone State. Taking 24% of black voters makes the difference here.
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